Human Social and Cultural Behavior
Modeling Workshop
July 28-30 2008
National Defense University
Introduction to the July
HSBC Conference
On July 28-30 2008, the Center for Technology & Security Policy
at National Defense University gathered together over one hundred
distinguished social scientists, government analysts, and private-sector
modeling experts for its Human Social and Cultural Behavior (HSBC)
Modeling Workshop. The workshop opened with remarks from the key
DoD managers invested in the workshop's results - Robert Foster,
Director of the Biosystems branch of the Office of Defense Research
& Engineering, and Dr. Andre Van Tilborg, Deputy Undersecretary
for Science & Technology. The speakers empasized both the potential
of HSBC modeling to inform OOTW missions, and the need to 'make
the leap' in capability that will make HSBC modeling efficient and
reliable.
The workshop itself began each day with presentations in the morning,
followed by discussion groups in the afternoons. Over the whole
conference, attendees listened to seven presentations from leading
modeling and social science experts regarding the results of recent
fieldwork and tool development. After each set of presentations,
attendees participated in a series of working groups to discuss
an ambitious yet plausible vision for HSBC modeling. CTNSP hoped
to forge consenus on what achievements should or could be expected
from the modeling community as a whole; on what problems were the
most pressing to solve; and on what might be promising paths to
solve them.
Following the conclusion of the workshop, a Synthesis Team led
by senior NDU Staff began to capture, organize and present the conclusions
established by the working groups, using several formats, including
an MS PowerPoint briefing, an article-length final report, and eventually
a book-length presentation of the plenary session papers and workshop
conclusions. These tasks are still in progress. All of these products
will be made available on this website at the earliest possible
date.
Below is a summary of the workshop agenda. Each plenary session
presentation should contain a link to the formal paper upon which
the presentation was based. Furthermore, each working group should
be linked to an MS PowerPoint briefing on the findings of that group,
as collected by its own Synthesis Team and/or team leaders.
If you have any questions about the workshop’s operations
or its results, please contact CTNSP at WillcoxJ@ndu.edu (for administrative
& website questions), or Mike Baranick at baranickM@ndu.edu.
Documentation of the Workshop
Results
Synthesis Team Report Summary – PowerPoint
Synthesis Team Full Report – Document
Report on Participation Survey Results
Full List of Workshop Participants
HSBC Conference Agenda &
Preparatory Documents
CONFERENCE AGENDA
| Day 1 |
July 28 2008 |
| 0700-0800 |
Marshall Hall (62), Room 155
Registration |
| 0800-0815 |
Administrative Notes: Dr. Mike Baranick |
| 0815-0830 |
Welcome Remarks: Dr. Robert Foster, Director, BioSystems,
DDR&E |
| 0830-0930 |
Keynote Speaker: Dr. Andre van Tilborg, Deputy Under Secretary
for Science and Technology, Department of Defense |
| 0930-1030 |
Speaker: Dr. Patricia Partnow & Dr. Dean Hartley –
“Using
Cultural Information Model DIME/PMESII effects |
| 1030-1100 |
Break |
| 1100-1200 |
Speaker: Dr. David Carment - “Approaches
to Country Risk Analysis and Early Warning” |
| 1200-1215 |
Break to Pick Up Lunches |
| 1215-1315 |
Speaker: Dr. Eli Berman - “Sects
and Violence for Economists" |
| 1315-1330 |
Administrative Notes: Dr. Stuart Starr |
| 1330-1730 |
Working Groups: |
| Social Science (Micro) Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 101
Chair: Dr. Jerrold Post - Paper
Co-Chair: Dr. Larry Kuznar – Paper
Final
Briefing
|
Social Science (Macro) Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 110 Chair: Dr. Richard Lobban –
Paper
Co-Chair: Dr. Loren Cobb - Paper
Final
Briefing
|
Methods, Tools, VV&A Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 196
Chair: Dr. Dean Hartley - Paper
Co-Chair: Dr. Marina Arbetman - Paper
Final
Briefing |
Operations Research Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 197 Chair: Dr. Mike McGinnis
Co-Chair: Dr. Bob Sheldon
Final
Briefing |
Deterrence Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 101
Chair: Dr. Pat McKenna – Paper
Chair: Dr. Yuna Wong
Final
Briefing |
Counter Terrorism Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 101
Chair: Lt Col Guermantes Lailari - Paper
Co-Chair: Dr. Dipak Gupta - Paper
Final
Briefing |
Counter Insurgency Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 196
Chair: Dr. Jack Goldstone – Paper
Chair: CDR Brett Pierson - Paper
Final
Briefing |
SSTRO Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 197
Chair: Dr. Paul West - Paper
Co-Chair: Dr. Richard Deckro – Paper
Final
Briefing |
Some of the files require the
Adobe Acrobat reader for viewing.
The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied
within are those of the contributors, and do not necessarily reflect
the views of the Department of Defense or any other agency of the
Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited.
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