Brian Efird, Ph.D.
Senior Research Fellow
Dr. Efird has applied social science modeling and simulation (M&S) to understand,
forecast, and shape complex human behaviors since 1997. This includes the application
of various methodologies (including game theory, decision theoretics, econometrics,
agent based modeling) to hundreds of problems in the private and public sectors.
He has interviewed and worked with literally thousands of subject matter experts
across the globe.
At the National Defense University, Dr. Efird is a Senior Research Fellow working
with both the Center for Technology and National Security Policy as well as
the Center for Complex Operations. As a Program Manager, he leads the development
of DataCards, an emerging standard in data sharing and data discovery on socio-cultural
data; he has shaped the development of tools for integration of disparate data
sources; applied unique analytic methods to human decision making in Afghanistan
and a number of countries around the world; is leading teams to improve the
rigor of social science in the Department of Defense; and is spearheading an
interagency effort to combat Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) in
Mexico. Dr. Efird also serves as the Chair of the Social Science Community of
Practice (COP) for the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). As part
of the interagency TCO effort, focused on Mexico, Dr. Efird has formed a Counter-TCO
Community of Interest (COI), comprised of a large number of organizations across
the U.S. federal government, a growing number of state and local government
partners, as well as academic and non-traditional partners.
Previously, at Sentia Group, Dr. Efird was Executive Vice President-responsible
for all customer interactions-developing and applying multi-method analyses
to support of corporate and government leadership, analysts, and operators.
Prior to Sentia, Dr. Efird was a consultant in New York City with Decision Insights,
Inc. applying M&S to advise on over 100 mergers and acquisitions, corporate
restructurings, and multi-party litigations.
Dr. Efird earned a B.A. in Philosophy from Emporia State University, and a
M.A. in International Studies and Ph.D. in Political Science from Claremont
Graduate University. He has published a number of articles in peer-reviewed
journals and is co-author of the book Power Transitions.
Functional Experience: Social Science Modeling and Simulation, Socio-Cultural
Data, Counterinsurgency (COIN) Operations, Political Economy of Development,
Small and Large Group Decision Making Processes.
Regional Expertise: Afghanistan, China, Mexico, Nigeria, Sudan.