Brian Efird, Ph.D.
Senior Research Fellow

Dr. Efird has applied social science modeling and simulation (M&S) to understand, forecast, and shape complex human behaviors since 1997. This includes the application of various methodologies (including game theory, decision theoretics, econometrics, agent based modeling) to hundreds of problems in the private and public sectors. He has interviewed and worked with literally thousands of subject matter experts across the globe.

At the National Defense University, Dr. Efird is a Senior Research Fellow working with both the Center for Technology and National Security Policy as well as the Center for Complex Operations. As a Program Manager, he leads the development of DataCards, an emerging standard in data sharing and data discovery on socio-cultural data; he has shaped the development of tools for integration of disparate data sources; applied unique analytic methods to human decision making in Afghanistan and a number of countries around the world; is leading teams to improve the rigor of social science in the Department of Defense; and is spearheading an interagency effort to combat Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs) in Mexico. Dr. Efird also serves as the Chair of the Social Science Community of Practice (COP) for the Military Operations Research Society (MORS). As part of the interagency TCO effort, focused on Mexico, Dr. Efird has formed a Counter-TCO Community of Interest (COI), comprised of a large number of organizations across the U.S. federal government, a growing number of state and local government partners, as well as academic and non-traditional partners.

Previously, at Sentia Group, Dr. Efird was Executive Vice President-responsible for all customer interactions-developing and applying multi-method analyses to support of corporate and government leadership, analysts, and operators. Prior to Sentia, Dr. Efird was a consultant in New York City with Decision Insights, Inc. applying M&S to advise on over 100 mergers and acquisitions, corporate restructurings, and multi-party litigations.

Dr. Efird earned a B.A. in Philosophy from Emporia State University, and a M.A. in International Studies and Ph.D. in Political Science from Claremont Graduate University. He has published a number of articles in peer-reviewed journals and is co-author of the book Power Transitions.

Functional Experience: Social Science Modeling and Simulation, Socio-Cultural Data, Counterinsurgency (COIN) Operations, Political Economy of Development, Small and Large Group Decision Making Processes.

Regional Expertise: Afghanistan, China, Mexico, Nigeria, Sudan.