Human Social and Cultural Behavior Modeling Workshop July 28-30 2008 National Defense University
Introduction to the July HSBC Conference
On July 28-30 2008, the Center for Technology & Security Policy at National Defense University gathered together over one hundred distinguished social scientists, government analysts, and private-sector modeling experts for its Human Social and Cultural Behavior (HSBC) Modeling Workshop. The workshop opened with remarks from the key DoD managers invested in the workshop's results - Robert Foster, Director of the Biosystems branch of the Office of Defense Research & Engineering, and Dr. Andre Van Tilborg, Deputy Undersecretary for Science & Technology. The speakers empasized both the potential of HSBC modeling to inform OOTW missions, and the need to 'make the leap' in capability that will make HSBC modeling efficient and reliable.
The workshop itself began each day with presentations in the morning, followed by discussion groups in the afternoons. Over the whole conference, attendees listened to seven presentations from leading modeling and social science experts regarding the results of recent fieldwork and tool development. After each set of presentations, attendees participated in a series of working groups to discuss an ambitious yet plausible vision for HSBC modeling. CTNSP hoped to forge consenus on what achievements should or could be expected from the modeling community as a whole; on what problems were the most pressing to solve; and on what might be promising paths to solve them.
Following the conclusion of the workshop, a Synthesis Team led by senior NDU Staff began to capture, organize and present the conclusions established by the working groups, using several formats, including an MS PowerPoint briefing, an article-length final report, and eventually a book-length presentation of the plenary session papers and workshop conclusions. These tasks are still in progress. All of these products will be made available on this website at the earliest possible date.
Below is a summary of the workshop agenda. Each plenary session presentation should contain a link to the formal paper upon which the presentation was based. Furthermore, each working group should be linked to an MS PowerPoint briefing on the findings of that group, as collected by its own Synthesis Team and/or team leaders.
If you have any questions about the workshop’s operations or its results, please contact Mike Baranick at baranickM@ndu.edu.
Documentation of the Workshop Results
Synthesis Team Report Summary – PowerPoint
Synthesis Team Full Report – Document
Report on Participation Survey Results
Full List of Workshop Participants
HSBC Conference Agenda & Preparatory Documents
CONFERENCE AGENDA
| Day 1 |
July 28 2008 |
| 0700-0800 |
Marshall Hall (62), Room 155 Registration |
| 0800-0815 |
Administrative Notes: Dr. Mike Baranick |
| 0815-0830 |
Welcome Remarks: Dr. Robert Foster, Director, BioSystems, DDR&E |
| 0830-0930 |
Keynote Speaker: Dr. Andre van Tilborg, Deputy Under Secretary for Science and Technology, Department of Defense |
| 0930-1030 |
Speaker: Dr. Patricia Partnow & Dr. Dean Hartley – “Using Cultural Information Model DIME/PMESII effects |
| 1030-1100 |
Break |
| 1100-1200 |
Speaker: Dr. David Carment - “Approaches to Country Risk Analysis and Early Warning” |
| 1200-1215 |
Break to Pick Up Lunches |
| 1215-1315 |
Speaker: Dr. Eli Berman - “Sects and Violence for Economists" |
| 1315-1330 |
Administrative Notes: Dr. Stuart Starr |
| 1330-1730 |
Working Groups: |
|
Social Science (Micro) Working Group Marshall Hall, Room 101
Chair: Dr. Jerrold Post - Paper Co-Chair: Dr. Larry Kuznar – Paper Final Briefing
|
Social Science (Macro) Working Group Marshall Hall, Room 110
Chair: Dr. Richard Lobban – Paper Co-Chair: Dr. Loren Cobb - Paper Final Briefing |
Methods, Tools, VV&A Working Group Marshall Hall, Room 196
Chair: Dr. Dean Hartley - Paper Co-Chair: Dr. Marina Arbetman - Paper Final Briefing |
Operations Research Working Group Marshall Hall, Room 197
Chair: Dr. Mike McGinnis Co-Chair: Dr. Bob Sheldon Final Briefing |
|
Deterrence Working Group Marshall Hall, Room 101
Chair: Dr. Pat McKenna – Paper Chair: Dr. Yuna Wong Final Briefing |
Counter Terrorism Working Group Marshall Hall, Room 101
Chair: Lt Col Guermantes Lailari - Paper Co-Chair: Dr. Dipak Gupta - Paper Final Briefing |
|
Counter Insurgency Working Group Marshall Hall, Room 196
Chair: Dr. Jack Goldstone – Paper Chair: CDR Brett Pierson - Paper Final Briefing |
SSTRO Working Group Marshall Hall, Room 197
Chair: Dr. Paul West - Paper Co-Chair: Dr. Richard Deckro – Paper Final Briefing |
Some of the files require the Adobe Acrobat reader for viewing.
The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the contributors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited.
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