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Human Social and Cultural Behavior Modeling Workshop
July 28-30 2008

National Defense University

Introduction to the July HSBC Conference


On July 28-30 2008, the Center for Technology & Security Policy at National Defense University gathered together over one hundred distinguished social scientists, government analysts, and private-sector modeling experts for its Human Social and Cultural Behavior (HSBC) Modeling Workshop. The workshop opened with remarks from the key DoD managers invested in the workshop's results - Robert Foster, Director of the Biosystems branch of the Office of Defense Research & Engineering, and Dr. Andre Van Tilborg, Deputy Undersecretary for Science & Technology. The speakers empasized both the potential of HSBC modeling to inform OOTW missions, and the need to 'make the leap' in capability that will make HSBC modeling efficient and reliable.

The workshop itself began each day with presentations in the morning, followed by discussion groups in the afternoons. Over the whole conference, attendees listened to seven presentations from leading modeling and social science experts regarding the results of recent fieldwork and tool development. After each set of presentations, attendees participated in a series of working groups to discuss an ambitious yet plausible vision for HSBC modeling. CTNSP hoped to forge consenus on what achievements should or could be expected from the modeling community as a whole; on what problems were the most pressing to solve; and on what might be promising paths to solve them.

Following the conclusion of the workshop, a Synthesis Team led by senior NDU Staff began to capture, organize and present the conclusions established by the working groups, using several formats, including an MS PowerPoint briefing, an article-length final report, and eventually a book-length presentation of the plenary session papers and workshop conclusions. These tasks are still in progress. All of these products will be made available on this website at the earliest possible date.

Below is a summary of the workshop agenda. Each plenary session presentation should contain a link to the formal paper upon which the presentation was based. Furthermore, each working group should be linked to an MS PowerPoint briefing on the findings of that group, as collected by its own Synthesis Team and/or team leaders.

If you have any questions about the workshop’s operations or its results, please contact Mike Baranick at baranickM@ndu.edu.

Documentation of the Workshop Results

Synthesis Team Report Summary – PowerPoint

Synthesis Team Full Report – Document

Report on Participation Survey Results

Full List of Workshop Participants

HSBC Conference Agenda & Preparatory Documents

CONFERENCE AGENDA

Day 1 July 28 2008
0700-0800 Marshall Hall (62), Room 155
Registration
0800-0815 Administrative Notes: Dr. Mike Baranick
0815-0830 Welcome Remarks: Dr. Robert Foster, Director, BioSystems, DDR&E
0830-0930 Keynote Speaker: Dr. Andre van Tilborg, Deputy Under Secretary for Science and Technology, Department of Defense
0930-1030 Speaker: Dr. Patricia Partnow & Dr. Dean Hartley – “Using Cultural Information Model DIME/PMESII effects
1030-1100 Break
1100-1200 Speaker: Dr. David Carment - “Approaches to Country Risk Analysis and Early Warning”
1200-1215 Break to Pick Up Lunches
1215-1315 Speaker: Dr. Eli Berman - “Sects and Violence for Economists"
1315-1330 Administrative Notes: Dr. Stuart Starr
1330-1730 Working Groups:

Social Science (Micro) Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 101

Chair: Dr. Jerrold Post - Paper
Co-Chair: Dr. Larry Kuznar – Paper
Final Briefing

Social Science (Macro) Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 110

Chair: Dr. Richard Lobban – Paper
Co-Chair: Dr. Loren Cobb - Paper
Final Briefing

Methods, Tools, VV&A Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 196

Chair: Dr. Dean Hartley - Paper
Co-Chair: Dr. Marina Arbetman - Paper
Final Briefing

Operations Research Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 197

Chair: Dr. Mike McGinnis
Co-Chair: Dr. Bob Sheldon
Final Briefing

Day 2 July 29 2008
0830-0900 Marshall Hall (62), Room 155
Administrative Notes: Dr. Michael Baranick
0900-1000 Panel Speaker: Dr. Will Moore - “Cross-National Correlates of Terror: An Empirical Inquiry of the Late 20th Century”
1000-1015 Break
1015-1115 Panel Speaker: Dr. David Siegel – “Social Network Structure and Counterinsurgency/Counterterrorism: Using Theory to Limit Causal Links and Aid in Strategic Planning”
1115-1215 Panel Speaker: Dr. Barry Silverman – “Systems Engineering is the New Social Science”
1215-1230 Break to Pick Up Lunches
1230-1330 Lunch Speaker: Mr. Thomas Ferleman – “Modeling Global Futures: Forecasting Patterns, Determining Alternatives, and Mitigating Risk”
1330-1730 Working Groups

Deterrence Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 101

Chair: Dr. Pat McKenna – Paper
Chair: Dr. Yuna Wong
Final Briefing

Counter Terrorism Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 101

Chair: Lt Col Guermantes Lailari - Paper
Co-Chair: Dr. Dipak Gupta - Paper
Final Briefing

Counter Insurgency Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 196

Chair: Dr. Jack Goldstone – Paper
Chair: CDR Brett Pierson - Paper
Final Briefing

SSTRO Working Group
Marshall Hall, Room 197

Chair: Dr. Paul West - Paper
Co-Chair: Dr. Richard Deckro – Paper
Final Briefing

 

Some of the files require the Adobe Acrobat reader for viewing.

The opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed or implied within are those of the contributors, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Defense or any other agency of the Federal Government. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited.