Chapter 5: FRAGILE STATES AND UNGOVERNED SPACES From the Andean Ridge to the Celebes Sea, the existence of territories located within the formal boundaries of a state but beyond its effective control is an age-old problem. Governments everywhere have struggled for centuries against the use of lawless areas as sanctuaries from which unruly tribes, criminals, and rebels could organize and launch raids on neighboring settled zones. Thus, the most acute manifestation of state weakness is found not only in its dysfunction but also in its complete absence from places where it should be..... Social friction arising from the migration of mostly poor jobseekers from the developing countries of the global South to better-off nations of the South or to the industrialized countries of the global North is already a source of conflict in many parts of the world, and is likely to become even more so as environmental change begins to boost the number of “climate refugees.” Learn more.....

January 2009 capture of rebel leader Laurent Nikumda in Rwanda could increase chances for peace and stability in Democratic Republic of Congo.  Photo by AP images (Karel Prinsloo)

"Camp Nowhere" (January 15, 2010) by Marisa L. Porges, and April Longley Alley Just when the U.S. president was in the process of transferring Guantánamo Bay detainees to Yemen, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab attempted to blow up Flight 253....Detainee transfers have now been delayed, as they should be -- but what is going to happen to the 91 Yemeni detainees still in custody, more than 30 of whom have been cleared for release?  Learn more.....

"Defense Strategy in the Obama Administration" by Leo Michel This article appears in French in La Revue internationale et strategique No76 (Winter 2009/2010) published by the Institut de relations internationales et strategiques (IRIS) one of France's leading independent research organizations.  Learn more.....

Strategic Forum 252 "Avoiding a Crisis of Confidence in the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent." (January, 2010) by John P. Caves, Jr. The Nation risks a future crisis of confidence in its nuclear deterrent if it does not initiate soon the lengthy process of modernizing its nuclear arsenal and supporting infrastructure. Notwithstanding the goal of reducing the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. security strategy, nuclear weapons will remain highly salient to the Nation’s security for the foreseeable future, particularly as one or more nuclear-armed near peers narrow the gap that currently separates our conventional military power. Learn more.....

Strategic Forum 251 "U.S.-Cambodia Defense Relations: Defining New Possibilities"  (December, 2009)  by Lewis M. Stern U.S. interests in Southeast Asia would be well served by a stepped-up program of cooperation with Cambodia in areas such as counterterrorism, peacekeeping, counter-narcotics, disaster response, and stability operations. U.S. early investment in Cambodia’s future, beginning with support for the regional peace process, would provide a useful foundation for cooperation between the two countries that would have beneficial impact for Southeast Asia as a whole. Learn more.....

Strategic Forum 250 "North Korea: Challenges, Interests, and Policy"  by James J. Przystup (November, 2009) North Korea poses two distinct but interrelated challenges. The first is external: the challenge posed by its nuclear weapons program and the threat of proliferation off the Korean Peninsula. The second is essentially but not wholly internal: the challenge posed by the pending transfer of power in Pyongyang and potential for instability as the process plays out.....it is the threat, if not the reality, of North Korean instability that ranks among the most complex of contemporary challenges to international security Learn more....

Strategic Forum 249 Burma in Strategic Perspective: Renewing Discussion of Options Lewis M. Stern, George Thomas, and Julia A. Thompson (October, 2009) U.S. policy has sought to nudge the junta in Burma toward a more reasonable approach to its dilemma, either in the form of managing Aung San Suu Kyi’s house arrest in a semitransparent fashion, allowing the release of imprisoned prodemocracy activists and the National League for Democracy cadre, agreeing to visits from United Nations special representatives, or accepting regional advice and guidance at critical moments. But Burma is a minuet dramatizing the “one step forward, two steps backward” description of progress. Even as the administration of President Barack Obama commits itself in principle to reaching out to Burma, events conspire against another effort to coax the junta toward a reasonable, regionally acceptable solution to its hard edge.   Learn more...

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Strategic Forum 248 Unity of Effort: Key to Success in Afghanistan Christopher J. Lamb, Ph.D. and Martin Cinnamond, Ph.D. (October, 2009) The U.S. Government strategy for success in Afghanistan unveiled by President Obama on March 27, 2009, emphasized a classic population-centric counter-insurgency approach. Now, however, that strategy is being reconsidered. The latest INSS Strategic Forum by Christopher J. Lamb and Martin Cinnamond, “Unity of Effort: Key to Success in Afghanistan,” makes a contribution to the ongoing debate over U.S. strategy for Afghanistan.  It argues: 1) unity of effort is a more important strategy variable than resources; 2) the counterinsurgency mission conflicts with and should take precedence over the counterterrorism mission; and 3) inadequate unity of effort within special operations has contributed to civilian casualties that cripple public support for international forces. Finding the Obama administration efforts to improve unity of effort laudable but insufficient, the research concludes with recommendations that support and extend the initiatives the administration has taken to date.   Learn more.....

Strategic Forum 247 Radicalization by Choice: ISI and the Pakistani Army Robert B. Oakley and Franz Stefan-Gady (October, 2009) The Pakistani army and the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate remain essential for the security and stability of Pakistan. Both organizations have deliberately embraced Islamic radicalism as a means to address the conventional military gap between Pakistan and India....Despite U.S. pressure and appeals, Pakistani support has lacked the scope and intensity desired by the United States....Optimists describe Pakistan as a transitional democracy; pessimists call it a fragmented state.  Learn more.....

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Photo: US Army (Ronald Shaw, Jr.)

JFQ Article - Dr. Christopher J. Lamb, Senior Fellow MRAP's, Irregular Warfare, and Pentagon Reform by Christopher J. Lamb, Ph.D., Matthew J. Schmidt, and Berit G. Fitzsimmons  (October, 2009) "Mine resistant ambush protected (MRAP) vehicles offer an excellent case study for investigating the current debate over the Pentagon’s emphasis on developing and fielding irregular warfare capabilities. The debate was highlighted by a series of recent articles in Joint Force Quarterly,1 including one by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, who cited the slow fielding of MRAPs as a prime example of the Pentagon’s institutional resistance to investments in irregular warfare capabilities." Learn more......