William J. Perry Center for Hemispheric Defense Studies at the National Defense University

On January 18, CHDS will hold the third in its Hemispheric Forums series hosted by Prof. Howard Wiarda and moderated by Amb. Cris Arcos.  Discussions will center on current events taking place in Mexico including the upcoming Presidential and Congressional elections in the context of the continuing threat from transnational criminal organizations (TCOs).  Specifically, the Forum presenters will comment on the electoral dynamics, the expectations in reducing violence, and the range of security outcomes and their implications for Mexico's future.

With election-day set to occur on Sunday, July 1, 2012, Mexican voters will decide who will replace outgoing President Felipe Calderón.  According to news reports, the current frontrunner for the office is PRI candidate and former governor of the State of Mexico, Enrique Pena Nieto, well known as a critic of corruption.  Other candidates include the 2006 presidential election runner up Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador; Georgetown-educated lawyer Santiago Creel; and close Calderón allies Josefina Vazquez Mota and Ernesto Cordero.

Presenters From Left to Right: Dr. Howard J. Wiarda, Dr. Patricia H. Escamilla-Hamm, Dr. Richard D. Downie, Ambassador (Ret.) Cresencio Arcos, Ms. Celina Realuyo.

The Forum will seek to examine the impact of the election’s outcome on existing US-Mexico relations.  This forum will address and focus on the sufficiency and timeliness of US assistance to Mexico's efforts to protect its citizenry and curtail the TCOs' destabilizing effects on the viability of the country's governing institutions.  Another issue is the US-Mexico two-thousand-mile northern border which is a clear and present challenge to US security and safety interests, given the ongoing widespread drug-related violence.

The program will open with comments from panelists followed by a question-and-answer session.  Former US Ambassador and current Political Advisor to the Director of CHDS, AMB Cris Arcos, will serve as moderator. Panelists, composed of CHDS senior leadership and faculty members, will speak on the following subjects: Dr. Richard Downie, Director, “Critical Strategic Decisions in Mexico:  The Future of U.S.-Mexico Defense Relations;” Ms. Celina Realuyo, CHDS Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs, “Security Threats from Illicit Networks to the Americas;” Dr. Patricia Escamilla Hamm, CHDS Associate Professor of National Security Affairs, “The 2012 Elections and Implications for U.S.-Mexico Security Relations;” and Dr. Howard J. Wiarda, CHDSAssociate Director for Research and Publications, “A Return to Corporatism in Mexico.”