SUMMARY

Zhirinovskiy--The Man and His Supporters

Vladimir Zhirinovskiy, the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party in Russia and newly elected delegate to the lower house of the Russian parliament, has been called frivolous, a buffoon, a clown, a kook, but also a demagogue, ultra-nationalist, jingoist, fascist, and a comparative Hitler or Mussolini. His style of action and many of his statements tend to support some, if not all, of these charges. He has been described as arrogant, provocative, unpredictable, and emotional, but also sharp-witted, resourceful, hard-working, and an excellent orator. His statements are often contradictory in substance and alternatively aggressive and conciliatory, and it is difficult to say with certainty what he really believes and supports. He clearly desires power and wants to be president of Russia. He seems to believe that to achieve power he needs publicity and that to get publicity he must make statements and act in ways that grab the attention of the media and the public, even if some or many regard what he says and does as outrageous.

Zhirinovskiy was born and raised as a Russian in Kazakhstan. This may have influenced his interest in areas south of Russia and his later promotion of Russian nationalism. He appears to have had an unhappy childhood, and accounts of childhood and adolescent incidents suggest feelings of discrimination and an early history of others perceiving him as a trouble-maker.

He attended Moscow State University, where he studied foreign languages and later law, and worked in a number of government or quasi-government organizations. He became visibly active in politics only in 1990 when he emerged as leader of the ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic Party. In 1991, he ran for president of the USSR's Russian Soviet Federated Socialist Republic, coming in third with over 7% of the votes. In 1993, he participated in meetings to help draft the new Russian constitution and campaigned in the parliamentary elections, where he led his party to an unexpected degree of success. In recent months he has gained publicity or notoriety for his trips to Central and Eastern Europe and his activities in the parliament.

It has been alleged that he and his party have ties to or have been supported by the KGB and its successors, Russian defense industrialists, the Russian military, Russian and indigenous businessmen in Western and Eastern Europe, right-wing elements in Europe, Armenian businessmen, and Saddam Hussein. The truth about these allegations would be difficult to establish.

Zhirinovskiy's Policies and Positions

There are many inconsistencies in Zhirinovskiy's stated policies and positions across the board.

Domestic Politics: Zhirinovskiy calls himself a liberal democrat but has authoritarian leanings. While emphasizing the electoral process and willingness to work with those in parliament and the government, he has indicated that if he becomes president he would establish a dictatorship in Russia at least for a few years or until the internal situation improves in Russia or all the former USSR. While saying he advocates equal treatment for all peoples, he has made anti-minority statements, espouses as a slogan "For Russia, for all Russians," and suggests a Russian cultural and political superiority. He has made anti-Semitic statements, while denying he is anti-Semitic and discounting reports of Jewish affiliations.

Russia and the Near-Abroad: Zhirinovskiy, on the one hand, calls for ending Russian assistance to other former republics of the Soviet Union and says he does not want them as part of Russia at least for the near-term. On the other hand, he envisions over time a Russia that includes all the territory of the former Soviet Union, suggesting that the former republics will seek to subordinate themselves to Russia for economic and security reasons. In this new Russia, there would be no separate republics based on nationality, and Russians would be essentially first among equals, with other nationalities allowed to maintain their cultural but not political identities.

Policy toward Other Nations: Zhirinovskiy says no one needs to fear Russia, but, on one occasion or another, he has threatened to pursue nuclear blackmail against the U.S., U.K., and France, attack Germany, Japan, and Pakistan with nuclear or other forces, and blow nuclear radiation into Lithuania. He advocated replacing the president of Bulgaria with one of his advisors, while denying interfering in Bulgaria's internal affairs.

He opposes receiving foreign aid in Russia, and opposes Russian aid to countries other than Iraq and Serbia. He has written of a renaissance for the Russian military, opposes defense conversion in Russia, and strongly supports sales of Russian arms abroad. He advocates close relations with Germany and has spoken of an axis involving Germany, Russia, and India. He appears to be a friend and supporter of Saddam Hussein and Iraq. He has written a book entitled Last Dash to the South, which critics say propagandizes war against Turkey, Iran, and Afghanistan and advocates extending Russian influence militarily southward to the Indian Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. An official investigation related to his book and other of his activities has been initiated.

Zhirinovskiy and Increasing Russian Nationalism

Zhirinovskiy appears to have both drawn upon and helped stimulate an increasing Russian nationalistic sentiment. He has appealed to this sentiment in his campaigns and in his post-election statements and activities. In turn, his campaigning and the relative success of his Liberal Democratic Party in the parliamentary elections appear to have helped stimulate other political leaders and the Russian government to pay increased attention to this issue and in some cases adopt positions that are more nationalistic than in recent years.

Implications of Zhirinovskiy's Rise

There are many views about whether Zhirinovskiy's success to date poses a significant danger to democracy in Russia and world peace. Among possible scenarios for the future are that he:

discredits himself and fades from the scene;
is prosecuted and imprisoned for warmongering;
antagonizes people so much that he is physically harmed;
continues to be a major player in parliament and gains even greater influence and power; and
eventually becomes president of Russia or heavily influences Russian policy.
Were Zhirinovskiy to become president, we could face a Russian government that was:
internally anti-reform, even dictatorial, and anti-minority, including anti-Semitic;
outwardly acquisitive toward other former USSR republics;
supportive of increased funding and support for the military-industrial complex in Russia;
anti-Western and anti-U.S.;
supportive of Iraq, Libya, and other irresponsible states;
capable of declaring, if not executing, the most irresponsible of threats to world peace.

This could have significant implications for U.S. national security policy, defense budgets and programs, and a broad range of foreign policy issues, including refugee policy.

What Should the West Do?

There are several alternative approaches the West might pursue in dealing with Zhirinovskiy. These include:

neglect;
aloofness;
purposeful ignoring;
constructive engagement; and
active criticism and containment.

The author believes that Zhirinovskiy is fundamentally dangerous for democracy in Russia and international peace. While it should not be overdrawn, much about his rise, his ethnic and nationalistic prejudices, and his grand design for military conquest to help save and revive the fatherland conjure up the image of a Russian Hitler. Western and other states should share a strategic interest in diminishing the chances that Zhirinovskiy could rise to a leadership position in Russia. While reasonable people can debate the best tactical approach to take toward this strategic interest, the author believes Western and other countries should pursue, and encourage Russians to pursue, an approach of "active criticism and containment" of Zhirinovskiy.

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