President: Lieutenant General Ervin J. Rokke

Vice President: Ambassador William G. Walker

INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES

Director and Publisher: Hans A. Binnendijk

Publications Directorate & NDU Press Fort Lesley J. McNair

Washington, D.C. 20319-6000 Phone: (202) 475-1913 Fax: (202) 475-1012

Director: Frederick Kiley Chief, Publications Branch: George C. Maerz

Editors: Jonathan W. Pierce, Mary A. Sommerville

Editor for this volume: Jonathan W. Pierce

Secretary: Laura Hall Circulation Manager: Myrna Morgan

Jeffrey Simon is a Senior Fellow in the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University. Previously, he was Chief, National Military Strategy Branch and Soviet Threat Analyst at the Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College. He has taught at Georgetown University and has held research positions at the Systems Planning Corporation, the RAND Corporation, and the American Enterprise Institute.

INSS publishes McNair Papers to provoke thought and inform discussion on issues of U.S. national security in the post-Cold War era. These monographs present current topics related to national security strategy and policy, defense resource management, international affairs, civil-military relations, military technology, and joint, combined, and coalition operations.

Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations, expressed or implied, are those of the authors. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or any other U.S. Government agency. Cleared for public release; distribution unlimited.

Portions of this publication may be quoted or reprinted without further permission, with credit to the Institute for National Strategic Studies, Washington, D.C. A courtesy copy of reviews and tearsheets would be appreciated.