Ukrainian society has gone through a very difficult and traumatic period since 1991, a period first characterized by euphoria and now marked by apathy and cynicism. As a result of the economic decline and associated problems noted above, social tensions continue to rise and the potential for societal conflict is high.
In the last 4 years Ukraine has begun a number of important and dramatic transitions:
At the same time, old ideals of egalitarianism, social justice, and consensus are being replaced by a new value system emphasizing the virtues of social differentiation and stressing the principle of survival of the fittest. One of the greatest challenges facing President Kuchma's administration, then, is the formulation of a new social contract which will accommodate the values of economic effectiveness, social justice, and political democracy in a fashion acceptable to an increasingly cynical and alienated electorate.
One important precondition for the introduction of a new social contract is already in place. Survey data show that when asked to define the most important challenges facing Ukrainian society, respondents most frequently choose the option "the preservation of social stability." The percentage of respondents choosing this option rose significantly between 1992 and 1993 (from 44 to 55 percent), and it was chosen more frequently than options such as "the creation of a strong state," "the implementation of profound socioeconomic reforms," "the development of market relations," and "the development of democracy." Maintaining social stability was thus clearly a priority value for a large part of Ukraine's population during this period in spite of the disruptive social changes they had endured. When protest actions were contemplated, a strong preference was given to protests that remained within the framework of the law.17
In the immediate post-independence period Ukraine's post-Communist elites often took advantage of this great desire for social stability by arguing that any significant changes to the status quo would threaten social peace. However, the resulting failure to introduce meaningful reforms led to the deepening socioeconomic crisis described above, and greatly increased the chance that a large sector of society would reconsider the priority value they placed on social stability in the past.
The extent of the challenge faced by President Kuchma's administration should not be underestimated. A survey conducted in May 1994 showed that by far the most important motive that would impel residents of Ukraine's capital Kiev to engage in protest actions would be a further decrease in the standard of living of their families. The great majority of residents of Kiev have considerable difficulty making ends meet; other surveys have confirmed that concerns over continuously declining living standards, which have affected a majority of the population, have clearly assumed priority over other concerns. It is interesting to note that half of Kiev's residents manage to get by largely because they grow many of the food products they use on small plots of land or get such products from relatives who live in villages.18
One positive aspect of this economic crisis is that many people have been forced to look for alternative sources of income, and in the process have become less dependent on the state. However, most working adults either lack the opportunity to gain additional income or lack the time and energy to take advantage of such opportunities. In addition, although most of Ukraine's population still prefers to use legitimate means of expressing their social grievances, a majority of Kiev residents are convinced that protest actions will have no positive results. In order to prevent a further deterioration of their standard of living, therefore, in May 1994 one quarter of Kiev's residents were ready to engage in illegal or semilegal activities, a reflection of a substantial degree of moral alienation and contempt for the law.19
The likelihood of social conflict has also increased as a result of growing social differentiation and a resulting polarization between a small wealthy elite and an increasing majority of the population who live in poverty or are close to the poverty line. Only a small category of individuals can be said to belong to the middle class, which is usually seen as a guarantor of stability in society. By the end of 1994 the impoverishment of the greater part of the population of Ukraine had reached a critical level, and the main reason mass protests did not occur was probably the lack of serious and respected leaders and organizations who could channel and benefit from such protests.20
This growing social differentiation in Ukraine will impede the mobilization of broad public support for economic reforms, for there is a widespread conviction that the reform process has allowed those who are wealthy to enrich themselves by dishonest means. According to one survey, 40 percent of respondents were convinced that one could become wealthy only by robbing state property. Only 24 percent indicated that commercial skills and only 4 percent indicated that talent and hard work could lead to wealth.21
The prospects for mobilizing the population to support socioeconomic reforms are also limited because of the extent to which fears among the public dominate over hopes. This has resulted in a despondent, frustrated, and largely inert population that feels it has little influence on the situation unfolding around it. Social frustration and disorientation have been exacerbated by widespread fears that prices will continue to rise, and by the growing conviction that the growth of criminal activities will allow organized crime to increase its control over the country. When combined with a loss of faith in the state and its ability to administer the country, this creates favorable circumstances for the emergence of populist demagogues.22
In fact, it is surprising that Ukraine's population has shown such a high degree of patience in the face of recent adversity. There is no fully satisfactory explanation for the widespread aversion in Ukraine to violent protest as a means of expressing socioeconomic and political grievances. Some commentators rather impressionistically refer to a "traditional Ukrainian habit of settling issues peacefully."23 More significantly, however, one should note that because of its exposed and strategically significant location, as well as its rich resources, during both World Wars Ukraine was the scene of very fierce combat, accompanied by great physical destruction and human losses. Its population suffered a disproportionately large percentage of the casualties incurred by tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union during these conflicts. In addition, Ukraine's large and relatively prosperous rural population was heavily victimized during Stalin's drive to collectivize agriculture in the 1930s. The cumulative impact of these events appears to have encouraged a certain conservatism among Ukraine's population, and emphasis on maintaining the status quo. This is based on the (largely correct) perception that in this century rapid socioeconomic and political change has been accompanied by massive devastation and loss of human life. Perhaps this is why there is a widespread unwillingness in Ukraine, especially among its older citizens, to support political strategies which could lead to physical conflict.
There is, of course, a limit to the patience shown by the Ukrainian population in the last few years; this has been reflected, for example, in various strikes and other protests called by trade unions protesting deteriorating living standards. (The labor movement in Ukraine, however, lacks strong, dynamic leaders and has splintered into numerous trade unions that often compete with each other. At present labor movement activities do not appear to pose a threat to state stability.24)
In general, in recent years socioeconomic discontent has not been channeled into mass protests and violence; rather, it has been internalized and reflected in the growth of various social pathologies such as alcoholism, absenteeism and shoddy work performance, and breakdown of the family unit. Some of these phenomena are particularly widespread among youth, who are faced with very high levels of unemployment after completing their education.25
Ukraine's socioeconomic difficulties have not provoked mass protests threatening the stability of the state, but they have led to increasing alienation, demoralization and political apathy among a large part of the population and among members of the younger generation in particular. Even if the economic situation in Ukraine soon begins to improve, it will be a considerable period of time before the impact of these negative phenomena can be reversed. In the meantime, many of Ukraine's most talented scholars, scientists, and graduate students, unhappy with their prospects in the country, have emigrated or are considering emigration.
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