McNair Paper Number 54, Chapter 8, October 1996

In comparison with regions such as the Balkans, the Middle East, and Central Africa, the Caribbean is a peaceful region, but an analysis of the dynamics of the region's complexity, changes, and challenges suggests that the security landscape is fraught with a variety of dangers. Some are not so much specific threats as they are apprehensions, and some of these are clear and present, while others are not. Moreover, these threats and apprehensions do not have a uniform impact on the countries in the region, but their character and scope, the size and capability limitations of the countries, and the vulnerability of Caribbean countries to state and nonstate action make the entire region subject to the impact of these threats and apprehensions.

The supreme challenge facing Caribbean states as they grapple with the problems that characterize the region's security landscape on the eve of the 21st century is, of course, survival. The vulnerabilities to which these small states are subject, and the threats and apprehensions facing them make real the question of whether some of them can survive in the 21st century as political and economic entities with more than just a mere modicum of sovereignty, which itself is undergoing change because of turbulence and change within and outside the security arena. (Note 1) In thinking of this matter I am reminded of a statement made in July 1984 by Shridat Ramphal, then the Secretary General of the Commonwealth of Nations, which still so aptly captures the dilemma of Caribbean and other small states: "Sometimes it seems as if small states were like small boats pushed out into a turbulent sea, free in one sense to traverse it; but, without oars or provisions, without compass or sails, free also to perish. Or perhaps, to be rescued and taken aboard a larger vessel." (Note 2)

Some people look to various integration mechanisms as potential "larger vessels." The Association of Caribbean States (ACS), which was formed in July 1994, is the latest such mechanism. (Note 3) However, other people entertain the thought, if not hope, that the U.S. would become that "larger vessel," despite the fact that the U.S. itself has often undermined the sovereignty of some Caribbean states. Thus, the United States is featured both in the vulnerability and the survival options of the Caribbean. As Robert Pastor notes in an article on United States-Caribbean relations in the May 1994 issue of The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, "The United States is both a solution and a problem."

How scholars and statesmen assess the Caribbean's supreme challenge and its threats and apprehensions near the end of this century will influence what actions they propose and implement to address them in the new century. For as the late Kenneth Boulding presciently observed more than a quarter-century ago, "People whose decisions determine the policies and actions of nations do not respond to the 'objective' facts of the situation, whatever that may mean, but to their 'image' of the situation. It is what we think the world is like, and not what it is really like, that determines our behavior." (Note 4) One can only hope that the "image" of the Caribbean presented here is useful to those who have to design and implement policies relating to its security.