McNair Paper 60, April 1999, The Revolution in Military Affairs: Allied Perspectives

3.

The RMA and Regional Allies: The Asian Case 

We are not seeking here to provide a comprehensive overview for Asian approaches to the RMA.  Rather, we are establishing a baseline from which to understand the challenge for regional partners of the United States to pursue the RMA.  It is clear that the Asian industrial allies of the United States, notably Japan, Australia, and South Korea, find themselves in a situation different from those in Europe in confronting the RMA and the American transition.  All these factors provide for a push for a regional RMA within Asia.  

There have been three variants of a regional RMA within Asia evident in the past few years. 

Paul Dibb recently provided an overview of the RMA and Asian security.  We will draw upon his analysis in this section to provide some baseline judgments about the regional specific dynamics of the RMA.

Dibb underscores a key point for the RMA considerations of regional powers. 

It is important to accept that regional countries will adapt the RMA concept to their own assessments of how to deal with credible military threats.  Those regional states which worry about higher levels of potential military threat from well-armed neighbors may be more attracted to the concept.  Conversely, countries which perceive a non-threatening or benign strategic environment may (correctly or incorrectly) see little utility in the RMA.  There may be a third category of countries which¾  whilst perceiving no immediate threat¾  seek to assert a margin of military excellence through the judicious use of the RMA adapted to their particular geographical and technological circumstances.  This latter point raises another related issue.  The RMA as developed by the United States is generally perceived in the region as too expensive and being on a scale of offensive fire power that has limited relevance to most (but not all) countries in the region.3 

In characterizing the probable adoption of RMA approaches in the region, Dibb argues that there are three key discriminators: the relationship to the United States, the capacity to absorb RMA technologies, and threat perception.4

  Table 1.  RMA approaches

 

Tier 1

 

Close ally of the United States with high capacity to absorb the RMA

 

Australia, Japan, South Korea

Tier 2

High perceptions of threat with moderate capacity to absorb the RMA

China, Singapore, Taiwan

Tier 3

Moderate to low perceptions of threat with generally low capacity to absorb the RMA

India, Pakistan, other ASEAN countries, New Zealand

Tier 4

Extremely low capacity to absorb the RMA

Mongolia, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Laos, Papua New Guinea

 In his analysis of the RMA in Asia, Dibb identified a number of core requirements for success: 

Dibb concludes that an ability to work closely with the United States is a key factor shaping the Asian allied approach to the RMA.   

America's closest allies (Australia and Japan) will share in this process of information dominance. U.S. naval combat systems¾  characterized by high-powered phased-array radars with long range and volume search and which have a comprehensive cruise-missile defense capability¾  are already in service in the Japanese Navy and may be introduced elsewhere in the region (e.g., South Korea).  The transfer of such advanced technologies will make the U.S. task of combined operations with its allies in regional contingencies more effective.9  

 

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Notes

1.   For example, see David A. Fulghum, "Surveillance, Comm Links Dominate Upgrade Plans," Aviation Week and Space Technology, August 25, 1997, 50-52.

2.   "The advances made in military science and technology are remarkable.  As witnessed in the Gulf War, it is not an exaggeration to say that military technology is a factor that decides victory or defeat in battle.  This year's white paper on defense devotes a page to current military science and technology and explains the importance of Japan's efforts to support and extend military science and technology."  Editorial, Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun, Tokyo, July 16, 1997, 2.  Translated from the Japanese.

3.   Paul Dibb, "The Revolution in Military Affairs and Asian Security," International Institute for Strategic Studies (London) Annual Conference on Security Challenges in the Rising Asia-Pacific, Singapore, September 11-14, 1997), 4.

4.   Ibid., 10.

5.   Ibid., 11.

6.   Ibid., 13.

7.   Ibid., 15.

8.   Ibid., 18.

9.   Ibid., 23.