Contents

Foreword

Introduction

Chapter One
Sifting the Sibylline Ashes

Chapter Two
Estimates, Forecasts, and Scenarios

Chapter Three
Using the Future--Some Caveats

Chapter Four
Assumptions on National Strategy

Chapter Five
Consensus Views

Chapter Six
Divergence and Contradictions

Chapter Seven
Wild Cards

Chapter Eight
Toward a Consensus Scenario

Chapter Nine
Conclusions: Effective Defense Reviews

Appendix A
Primary Sources

Appendix B
Secondary Sources

Endnotes

About the Author