Contents

Preliminary Pages

Executive Summary

CHAPTER ONE

Context

Flashpoints

Major Powers

CHAPTER TWO

Russia

CHAPTER THREE

Europe

CHAPTER FOUR

China

CHAPTER FIVE

Japan

CHAPTER SIX

North America

Significant Regional Contingencies

CHAPTER SEVEN

Persian Gulf

CHAPTER EIGHT

Korean Peninsula

CHAPTER NINE

Arab-Israeli Conflict

CHAPTER TEN

India-Pakistan

CHAPTER ELEVEN

Proliferation

Troubled States


CHAPTER TWELVE

Balkans

CHAPTER THIRTEEN

Sub-Saharan Africa

CHAPTER FOURTEEN

Middle Eastern Radicalism

Transnational Problems


CHAPTER FIFTEEN

International Terrorism

CHAPTER SIXTEEN

International Crime

CHAPTER SEVENTEEN

Regugees, Migration, and Population

CHAPTER EIGHTEEN

Environment


Force Structure

CHAPTER NINETEEN

Threat Assessment

CHAPTER TWENTY

Key Military Missions

CHAPTER TWENTY ONE

Force Structure

Flashpoints

Russia Flashpoints
Baltics
Ukraine
The Caucasus
Central Asia

Europe Flashpoints
The Southern Rim
Turkey and Greece
NATO/EU Enlargement: Preventing Resentment
by the Have-Nots

China Flashpoints
Taiwan
Southeast Asia and the South China Sea
The Korean Peninsula

Japan Flashpoints
Alliance Strains
Regional Crisis
Trade and Security

North America Flashpoints
Mexico: Governance Under Stress
Quebec Separatism
Cuba: Betting on Castro's Mortality
Narco-corruption in the Caribbean

Persian Gulf Flashpoints
Iraqi Military Threat
Iranian Naval Interdiction in the Gulf
Acquisition of WMD by Iran or Iraq
Arabian Peninsula Conflict

Korean Peninsula Flashpoints
Accident, Incident, Provocation
Breakdown of the Agreed Framework
Coup d'etat in the North
Chaos in the North
Attack on Seoul

Arab-Israeli Conflict Flashpoints
Escalating Israeli-Palestinian Violence
Israeli Intervention in an Unstable Jordan
Violation or Abrogation of the Israeli-Egyptian Peace Treaty
Syrian-Israeli Confrontation
Rogue Use of WMD and Israeli Preventive Strikes on Rogue WMD Capabilities

India-Pakistan Flashpoints
Threats of Another War in Kashmir
Nuclear Escalation and Competition
Terrorism: A Proxy War?

Proliferation Flashpoints
North Korea
Iran
Iraq
Libya
Syria

Balkans Flashpoints
Bosnia
Kosovo
Macedonia

Sub-Saharan Africa Flashpoints
Rwanda and Burundi
Angola
Liberia and Somalia

Middle East Radicalism Flashpoints
Stalemate in Algeria
Bahrain as Bellwether for the Arabian Peninsula
Egypt Confronts Its Islamists
Turkey Under Islamist Rule
Radical Islamism Among Palestinians

International Terrorism Flashpoints
Terrorism and the Arab-Israeli Peace Process
Terrorist Attacks Against U.S. Forces Abroad
Terrorism in the United States
Slaughter by Fanatics
Continuing Terrorism Elsewhere

International Crime Flashpoints
Drug Trafficking
Nuclear Smuggling
Threats to Democracy
Collusive Relationships

Refugees, Migration and Population Flashpoints
Military Involvement in Man-Made Humanitarian Emergencies
Military Involvement in Natural and Technological Disasters
Caribbean and Mexico Migration Control

Environment Flashpoints
Instability Exacerbated by Land Scarcity, Soil Erosion, and Deforestation
Conflict in the Middle East over Water Scarcity
Environmental Problems on the High Seas