Updated: 25 April 2005
|
|
“The
Franklin
Delano |
“To promote peace and stability in the
broader George W. Bush |
|---|
The
While
the U.S. decision to go to war, the consequent occupation of Iraq,
and the continuing insurgency have polarized many in the region and
the international community, Iraqis are taking their first tentative steps
towards establishing democratic rule.
President Bush was clear in his State of the Union address of his
intentions toward Iraq
and what he sees as being at stake for
Against
this backdrop we are asking practitioners and scholars from the
PROGRAM
0815-0925
Registration – Marshall Hall
0925-0935 Administrative remarks Marshall Hall, room 155
0935-0940 Welcome - Ambassador Johnnie Carson, Senior Vice President, National Defense University
0945-1115
Panel 1 – What are U.S.
Security Commitments to/in the Region?
What are our security commitments to the region, implicit or explicit? Is there a difference in how we understand those commitments and how those in the region understand them? How well have we aligned those commitments to match the threat? |
|
How does the region perceive the threat to its security, what will it demand of the U.S. to honor American commitments to regional security? Given our national interest in maintaining regional security and stability, what will we need and what can we expect from regional governments to do the mission? |
|
|
Do
we and our regional friends and allies agree on the threat? How
should we alter our security commitments to reflect the differences? |
|
|
What
are the regional demands on our resources and how does the U.S.
balance those demands with
the desire or need to distribute those resources elsewhere? How do
we prioritize between competing requirements in different regions? |
|
|
What
impact does |
|
|
How much impact have the war in Iraq, the insurgencies, and the recent election had on the Gulf region? How important is “the Street” in shaping popular attitudes and official policy towards the U.S.? |
Moderator: Dr. Judith Yaphe, Senior Fellow, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Panelist:
Ambassador Edward Gnehm, Shapiro Visiting Professor of International Affairs, The Elliot School of International Affairs, The George Washington University - paper htm pdf |
|
RADM John Sigler, USN (Ret), The Foundation for Environmental Security and Sustainability, former Director for Plans and Policy, U.S. Central Command - paper pending |
1120-1200
Optional
1200-1330
Luncheon
- Marshall Hall, Room 155
Honorable Douglas Feith, Undersecretary of Defense for Policy |
1400-1545
Panel
2 - Democratization in the Region
|
What
are the public attitudes in the |
|
|
What
relative values do people in Middle Eastern countries place on
ideals – such as democracy, freedom, justice, equality, order, and
independence – that may be in tensions with one another as
political reform proceeds? |
|
|
What
are the linkages between economic development and democracy? |
|
|
How
well are the Middle Eastern countries preparing their workforce for
the new economic environment? What progress are they making in
educational reform? |
|
|
How
do regional military forces see their roles – defending against
external aggression and/or guaranteeing internal stability? To what
degree are they equipped to deal with internal and external
challenges? |
|
|
To what degree have Arab governments used the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and other conflicts as an excuse for limiting a more pluralistic government? |
Moderator: Ambassador Marcelle Wahba, Professor, National War College, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates
Panelist:
Dr. F. Gregory Gause, III, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Vermont - paper htm pdf |
|
Dr. Jean-Francois Seznec, Adjunct Professor, Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, Georgetown University - paper htm pdf |
|
Dr. Nathan Brown, Professor of Political Science and International Affairs, George Washington University - paper htm pdf |
|
Ms. Alina Romanowski, Director, Middle East Partnership Initiative (MEPI), U.S. Department of State - no paper |
1600-1730
Panel 3 - Proliferation and Arms Control – Regional Reactions
|
To what degree is the
development of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) driven by threat
perceptions? What other factors would prompt the regional states to
acquire WMD? |
|
|
How well has |
|
|
What did we learn about our
abilities and shortfalls to observe, analyze and assess WMD
development and proliferation from our experiences with |
|
|
What is the role for the
European Union and other friends and allies in preventing
Iran
from developing nuclear weapons and delivery systems? |
|
|
What are the chances, that
after the |
Moderator: Dr. John Reichart, Director, Center for the Study of Weapons of Mass Destruction, National Defense University
Panelist:
COL John H. Gill, USA (Ret.), former Professor, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University - no paper |
|
Dr. Robert Litwak, Director, International Studies Division, Woodrow Wilson International Center Scholars - - paper htm pdf |
|
Mr. James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, Department of National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School - no paper |
0830-1015 Panel 4 - Terrorism and Islamic Extremism
|
What
are the linkages between extremism and terrorism and how well do we
understand them? |
|
|
Are
we approaching the war on terrorism the right way, are we focusing on the
right issues? How do we convince regional governments and populations that
our focus and actions are correct and not a war on Islam? |
|
|
What
impact will the Administration’s policy to promote democracy in the
Broader Middle East have on terrorism in the next decade? |
|
|
Can
and should the |
|
|
What are the risks of undermining authoritarian but anti-terrorist regimes so that extremists rather than moderates come out ahead? |
Moderator: Dr. Joseph Goldberg, Professor of Political Science, the Industrial College of the Armed Forces, National Defense University
Panelist:
Mr. Daniel Benjamin, Senior Fellow, International Security Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies - no paper |
|
Dr. Juan R.I. Cole, Professor of History, University of Michigan - no paper |
|
Dr. Mamoun Fandy, Senior Fellow in Middle East Peace, James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy, Rice University - no paper |
1030-1215 Panel 5 - Regional Security Architecture
|
Following
the war in |
|
|
To
what extent will |
|
|
How
do the neighbors and the region view the emergence of a nuclear-armed |
|
|
Is there any common threat perception by regional neighbors that would motivate them to seek an alliance to counter that threat? |
Moderator: Dr. Michael D. Yaffe, Academic Dean, Near East-South Asia Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Panelist:
Dr. Henri J. Barkey, Bernard L. and Bertha F. Cohen Professor and Department Chair, Lehigh University - paper pending |
|
Mr. Charles Dunne, Policy Planning Staff, Department of State - no paper |
|
Dr. Bahman Baktiari, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Maine - paper pending |
1300-1430
Luncheon – Marshall Hall, Room 155
|
Mr. Aaron David Miller, President, Seeds of Peace |
1500-1645 Panel 6 – A Look Ahead: Possible Challenges on the Horizon
India and China are increasingly dependent upon oil imported from the Middle East. How has this shaped their involvement in the region? |
|
What are the prospects for increased security cooperation with Iran, particularly in missile or dual use, WMD-related technologies? |
|
How does the region view the increased presence of India, China, and others? |
|
What are the critical internal triggers that could transform Pakistan into an Islamist state? |
|
Would an Islamist Pakistan necessarily portend the proliferation of nuclear weapons or Islamic extremist? |
|
What role would an Islamist Pakistan play in regional security and what if any external alliances would it seek? |
|
What constitutes a successful outcome for Iraq? Will Iraq's neighbors view success in the same manner as the U.S. or Iraq itself? |
|
Can an economically and militarily strong, democratically ruled Iraq establish itself as a reliable regional security partner? What issues will be the toughest to resolve? |
|
Should Iraq fail to stabilize and develop economically and politically, what are the consequences for U.S. regional interest? |
Moderator: Mr. Joseph McMillan, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Panelist:
Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr., President, Middle East Policy Council - no paper |
|
Ambassador Husain Haqqani, Visiting Scholar, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace - paper pending |
|
Dr. Judith Yaphe, Senior Fellow, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University - paper htm pdf |
1645-1700 Summary and Closing remarks