Section 4

The Uneven Regional Impact of Globalization

The globalized world of the 21st century will not be a homogeneous place. Great differences still exist among the many regions of the world.

Europe is a showcase of globalization because it is adopting broad regional norms, unifying, and becoming more peaceful. In adapting NATO and the European Union to the new era, Europe has been developing a stable post-Cold War security structure in tandem with economic and political integration. Nonetheless, Europe faces challenges in guiding its internal unification, establishing cooperative relations with Russia, and dealing with still-stressful security affairs in the Balkans, parts of the Mediterranean littoral, and along Turkey's borders. Beyond this, Europe faces the added challenge of determining how it will play a larger role in world affairs outside its own continent.

Whereas Europe is integrating, Russia and its neighbors face profound troubles in adopting democracy and free markets in a setting of political and economic disarray. Recently its economy has started to grow, but over the past decade, Russia has suffered a 50 percent loss in GDP. The dismal economic, social, environmental, and health trends in Russia and its neighbors are part of the Soviet legacy. However, Russia's current political system is ill suited to cope with either these problems or the challenges of globalization. These domestic challenges will limit Russia's capacity to cooperate constructively with its neighbors and the United States.

Unloading relief supplies in wake of massive earthquake in India. U.S. Air Force
(Craig Bowman)

The current economic situation in Latin America combines the good, the bad, and the ugly--market reforms, poverty, and crime. Looking ahead, the most likely scenario is the emergence of three separate regional economies in the north, center, and south, with slow yet steady progress led by the countries of the south. In contrast to other regions, Latin America faces no major security threats or wars. However, it does face a mounting set of lesser problems for which it is ill prepared, such as organized crime, drug trafficking, and local violence.

Across the Middle East, with its mostly poor economies and shaky governments, globalization is feared and distrusted. Political Islam and Arab nationalism are partial backlashes to it. Yet there are signs of progress: NGOs are becoming more active advocates of democracy and the rule of law, and Arab businessmen and modernizing political leaders realize that globalization can be a source of economic and political gains. However, in the unstable Persian Gulf, globalization is creating stress within the domestic political system, feeding a perception of globalization as an effort by the West to impose its political values on traditional regimes. Meanwhile, globalization is not easing the region's treacherous security concerns, which derive from vulnerable oil fields, military imbalances, and political confrontations.

Commander in Chief, Pacific Fleet, reviewing honor guard in China. U.S. Navy (Lena Gonzalez)

In East Asia, globalization has had many positive effects in triggering market reforms, greater democracy, and faster growth. Yet the 1997 crisis exposed Asian vulnerability to abrupt financial shocks and its need for further reforms. Moreover, globalization is having uneven effects, uplifting elites and coastal areas, but leaving other areas behind. Although still poor and riddled with an obsolete political system, China is achieving great economic gains owing to globalization, and India is making progress as well. As both countries gain economic strength, they likely will pursue traditional geopolitical goals rather than integration with the U.S.-led democratic community. The effect will be to lend further complexity to the tenuous security politics of Asia and South Asia. The bottom line is that the United States will face a future of strategic challenges and opportunities there.

Sub-Saharan Africa is a backwater of the modern world economy. With few exceptions, this vast continent remains dominated by poverty, weak governments, unstable societies, and fragile economies. At present, globalization is mostly leaving Africa behind, yet many Africans are now searching for ways to respond. Africa will need outside economic help, but its countries have shown that they can cooperate in handling the region's problematic security affairs.

Thus, globalization's uneven dynamics are having very different regional consequences. Economics and security affairs are interacting as an engine of progress in some regions, but as a source of strain in others.