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INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES



INSS Symposium – NATO: Bucharest and Beyond


    NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer (center) and Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General John Craddock (right) – Feb 2008 ISAF (NATO)




Lt Gen Patrick de Rousiers, MG Patrick O’Reilly, Ms. Elaine Bunn

    Lt Gen Patrick de Rousiers, French Air Force, MG Patrick O’Reilly, U.S Missile Defense Agency and Ms. Elaine Bunn, INSS (left to right) discuss key strategic and technical issues regarding NATO's role in missile defense. (NDU)


The National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies hosted the 2008 European Symposium at Fort Lesley J. McNair on February 20, 2008. The Symposium, “NATO: Bucharest and Beyond,” which attracted 345 registrants, included a keynote speech by General John Craddock, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, via VTC from Afghanistan. The symposium focused on identifying and exploring key issues facing NATO today: the pursuit of complex stabilization operations; threats posed by proliferation of ballistic missile capabilities; the U.S. commitment to NATO; and the possible movement towards a new Strategic Concept for the Alliance.

Other featured speakers included Admiral Gregory Johnson, USN (Ret), former Commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe; Ambassador Eberhard Pohl, Deputy Political Director, German Federal Foreign Office; Lieutenant General Patrick de Rousiers, French Air Force, Commander of Air Defense and Air Operations; Major General Patrick O’Reilly, Deputy Director of the Missile Defense Agency; Major General Ton van Loon, Royal Netherlands Army, Chief of Staff, Allied Land Component Command, NATO; Major General Heinrich Brauss, German Army, Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Policy Planning, NATO; and Mr. Kristian Fischer, Deputy Permanent Secretary of State for Defense, Denmark.

General John Craddock



For additional information, contact the INSS Conference Directorate, NDU_Conferences@ndu.edu or 202-685-3857.




                                                                                                      STRATEGIC POLICY STUDIES
GLOBAL DEFENSE STRATEGY, PLANNING & REQUIREMENTS

      The Global Defense Strategy, Planning and Requirements team examines challenges arising in the formulation and conduct of U.S. national security policy and defense strategy. The Institute for National Strategic Studies has been collaborating with the Project on National Security Reform since late 2006. The project is a non-partisan initiative sponsored by the Center for the Study of the Presidency and dedicated to reforms that will resolve the long-standing inability of the United States government to integrate effectively all elements of national power in pursuit of national security. Toward this end, the project includes a rigorous study of the interagency process that is modeled on the historic Goldwater-Nichols legislation that helped transform the American military and its unprecedented world-class capability for joint warfare. This presumptive study objectives are recommendations on: (1) changing the sixty-year-old National Security Act; (2) presidential directives to implement other reforms; and (3) new Congressional committee structure and practice. For more information on the project, visit www.pnsr.org.

      INSS hosted a special book seminar on Thursday September 20, 2007--"Increasing SOF's Strategic Value." The seminar included two panels, the first featuring authors Dr. Chris Lamb, INSS Senior Fellow and Dr. David Tucker, Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School. The second panel included commentary on the book and questions from the audience to the panel featuring the Honorable Jim Locher of the Project on National Security Reform; Retired Special Operations Forces officers Major General Geoffrey Lambert and Colonel David McCracken; and Colonel Kevin McDonnell, Director of the USSOCOM Washington Office. Click on one of the titles below to view the slide presentations given by panelists:



Selected Output:

U.S. Special Operations Forces, with David Tucker, forthcoming from Columbia University Press in August 2007.

“The U.S. Country Team: Restructuring America’s First Line of Engagement,” by Robert B. Oakley and Michael Casey, Jr, Strategic Forum No. 227, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, forthcoming in July 2007.

“Reforming Pentagon Strategic Decision Making,” by Christopher J. Lamb and Irving Lachow, Strategic Forum No. 221, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, July 2006.

“Restructuring Special Operations Forces for Emerging Threats,” by David Tucker and Christopher J. Lamb, Strategic Forum No. 219, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, January 2006.

"Review of Psychological Operations Lessons Learned from Recent Operational Experience," by Christopher J. Lamb, September 2005.

"Transforming Defense," by Christopher J. Lamb, September 2005.

“ Insurgency: Modern Warfare Evolves into a Fourth Generation,” by T.X. Hammes, Strategic Forum No. 214, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University, January 2005.

Click for Global Defense Strategy, Planning & Requirements reports:

Key Staff: Elaine Bunn, Christopher Lamb, Jim Murtha, Robert Oakley

Click here to visit the INSS Research Directorate page for related studies.

Click here to visit the NDU Press home page to view other related publications.

FUTURE STRATEGIC CONCEPTS

Click here to visit the INSS Research Directorate page for more information about this and related studies.

Click here to visit the NDU Press home page to view other related publications.

TERRORISM, TRANSNATIONAL THREATS & HOMELAND SECURITY


CTNSP / INSS Special Report: Transatlantic Homeland Defense

This report is a joint project of the Center for Technology and National Security Policy and the Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University. It was prepared by Neyla Arnas, Hans Binnendijk, Stephen J. Flanagan, Stuart E. Johnson, Richard L. Kugler, Leo G. Michel, Anne M. Moisan, Jeffrey Simon, and Kimberley L. Thachuk.

Excerpt: "NATO plays an essential role in defense of the transatlantic homeland from terrorism and other transnational threats, but it could do more, including in support of national, European Union, and Partner efforts to enhance societal security. This paper proposes an initiative to enhance NATO’s planning and capabilities in this area at the Alliance’s November 2006 Riga Summit. This back-to-basics approach is designed to ensure that NATO can deal effectively with new threats to the transatlantic homeland. It would also enhance NATO’s relevance in the eyes of the public on both sides of the Atlantic."


REGIONAL SECURITY STUDIES
EUROPE-EURASIA Back to top

France and NATO: Getting to “Oui”
by Leo Michel

French President Nicolas Sarkozy visited Washington on 6-7 November 2007. In a commentary written for Atlantic Partnership, INSS Senior Research Fellow Leo Michel offers his perspective on ways to increase French participation in NATO--a possibility raised by President Sarkozy and his defense and foreign ministers.

Russian Foreign Policy beyond Putin
by Eugene Rumer

Russia clearly has rebounded from its post-Soviet period of decline and is now seeking a place in world affairs commensurate with its size, history, and self-image. But is the expansive vision of Russia's leaders and people consistent with the resources realistically available to them over the long run? What are the critical factors driving Moscow's behavior in the economic, political and security spheres? Are fears of a new Cold War realistic? What options are available to Western policymakers in responding to a resurgent Russia? INSS Senior Fellow Eugene Rumer examines these and related questions in his new study, Russian Foreign Policy Beyond Putin, recently published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London as part of its prestigious Adelphi Papers series.

Central Asia: Views from Washington, Moscow and Beijing by Eugene Rumer et al.

Despite their impact on some of the most pressing issues facing American policymakers today, developing a coherent and effective strategy toward the Central Asian republics of the former USSR continues to prove a daunting challenge. The United States has a number of key interests at stake in Central Asia, ranging from the war on terrorism and democracy promotion to energy security and counterproliferation. At the same time, these five countries at the heart of the Eurasian landmass are also the potential focal point for a destabilizing competition between the U.S. and the panoply of rising and resurgent powers surrounding them. In Central Asia: Views from Washington, Moscow, and Beijing, INSS Senior Fellow Eugene Rumer and his Russian and Chinese co-authors consider how Central Asia's fragile political and security equilibrium would be affected by competition or cooperation among the major outside powers.

7 OCTOBER 2007 PRESENTATION
BY LEO MICHEL
NATO-EU CO-OPERATION IN OPERATIONS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

Some NATO-EU tensions likely are inevitable, as the organizations are different and national political calculations will come into play in any specific case. But with better tools in place to cooperate, the chances of an effective response will increase if and when the political will exists to do so.

Sarko’s Window of Opportunity

France’s NATO equities--measured in force contributions to its operations, military representation in its structure, and budget shares--far exceed its concrete investments in the EU’s European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP), but the latter enjoys pride of place in French political discourse. See Leo Michel's recent commentary in European Voice, a Brussels weekly newspaper dedicated to European Union issues.

What Place For France in NATO?

Will the new French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, follow his predecessor's policies regarding NATO and European defense or reshape France's approach in ways that strengthen both Europe and transatlantic relations? Read Senior Research Fellow Leo Michel's opinion piece published by Le Monde, a leading French newspaper, on June 5, 2007. Both French and English versions are available.

Transatlantic Relations and Radical Novelties in the 21st Century

On 14-15 May 2007, the NATO Defense College (NDC), Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), and the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) jointly organized a seminar at NDC (Rome) to explore "Transatlantic Relations and Radical Novelties in the 21st century." The seminar, conducted under "Chatham House Rules," addressed recent political developments in selected Allied countries and longer-term challenges (including demographic changes, the changing nature of warfare, and various impacts of "globalization") and their implications for the Atlantic Alliance. Seminar participants were officials from NATO Headquarters, Allied Command Transformation, Allied Command Operations, and experts from NATO nations, including INSS Director Dr. Stephen Flanagan and Senior Research Fellows Dr. Jeffrey Simon and Mr. Leo Michel. Here are the links for for a summary of the general findings of the seminar and "scope papers" outlining the principal issues.

NATO’s “French Connection”: Plus ça change…?
by Leo Michel

Will the next French president’s NATO agenda differ from his or her predecessor’s? The ongoing campaign has yielded few clues, as the leading candidates sound remarkably similar themes. But analysts of French defense policy predicting that plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose (“the more things change, the more they remain the same”) could be wrong. Senior Research Fellow Leo Michel explains why the winner of the May 6 run-off might want to reshape French policy regarding two near-term challenges—the relationship between NATO and the European Union, and the French role in Afghanistan—and, over the longer-term, re-evaluate the level of French participation in NATO structures.



On January 16, 2007, at the request of the Embassy of Norway, INSS Director Steven Flanagan and Senior Research Fellows Christopher Lamb and Leo Michel met with the Norwegian Defense Policy Commission. The 16-member Commission was appointed by the Norwegian Government in August, 2006, and includes representatives from the political parties in the Norwegian Parliament, trade unions, non-government organizations, and independent experts. Former State Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Minister of the Environment Siri Bjerke heads the Commission. The Commission's report will recommend policy priorities for the development of the Norwegian Armed Forces and contribute to the next Government White Paper on security and defense issues, covering the period 2009-2012. Mssrs. Flanagan, Lamb, and Michel made presentations and answered questions regarding the development of U.S. National Security Strategy, defense strategy and transformation issues, and key challenges in transatlantic defense and security relations.


NATO Decision-making: How the "Concensus Rule" Works
by Leo Michel
INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, Zagreb, Croatia (March 2007 issue)

Since its creation in 1949, NATO has developed a tradition of making decisions by consensus. This article by Senior Fellow Leo Michel explains the fundamentals of NATO decision making to Croatian specialists. Croatia is a member of NATO's Membership Action Plan.


NATO-EU Cooperation in Operations
by Leo Michel

NATO Defence College (Rome)


United States – France: The Logic of Cooperation
by Leo Michel

La Lettre Diplomatique (Paris)

The importance of close cooperation between France and the United States was demonstrated during the summer 2006 crisis over Lebanon, but there are many other areas where Washington and Paris share similar—albeit not identical—analyses on international security threats. Hence, closer political-military cooperation between the two is logical and desirable.

En Francais



Why NATO Must Remain Engaged in Afghanistan for Some Time to Come
by Leo Michel

Le Soir (Brussels) [A version of this article also appeared in Rzeczpospolita (Warsaw), 27 November 2006]

NATO’s commitment in Afghanistan is a major preoccupation of Alliance governments. Some consider that the peacekeeping mission they expected has metamorphosed into a “war”; others fear that their soldiers will be left to fight this “war” practically alone. NATO must address these preoccupations during its summit, in Riga, on 28-29 November.

En Francais


“The U.S. Interests and Role in Central Asia after K2,” by Eugene Rumer, The Washington Quarterly, Summer 2006

Central Asia is remote, poor, and has few historical or cultural ties to the United States. Yet, the region's importance to Washington exceeds its value as a stepping stone to Afghanistan and a neighbor of both China and Russia.


NEAR EAST-SOUTH ASIA Back to top

In the Media

China's Rise As A Global Economic and Political Power. By Phillip C. Saunders

China and East Asia expert Phillip Saunders talks about China's rise as a global economic and political power. He talks with VOA former Beijing correspondent Stephanie Ho and host Carol Castiel about China's increasing stake in Africa, its changing relationship with Taiwan and its sometimes competitive and sometimes cooperative relationship with the United States.


Airdate: 24 Feb 2007 VOA: Click here to view article in full.

 

5 years later, Afghanistan pays for sins of omission By Ali Ahmad Jalali

On the fifth anniversary of the U.S.-led military invasion, Afghanistan faces the worst crisis since the ouster of the Taliban in 2001. Attacks by a resurgent Taliban and acts of suicide terrorism have taken the lives of more than 2,000 people this year; poor governance and a lack of economic opportunities erode human security daily; drug production has increased to a record high; the government is losing control of an increasing number of districts to insurgents or warlords; and corruption is rampant.

Minister Ali Ahmad Jalali is Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University. He formerly served as Interior Minister of Afghanistan.

October 8, 2006 The Baltimore Sun :Click here to view article in full.

Iraq Isn't About Us Anymore By Judith S. Yaphe

The U.S. has few options in Iraq. American pundits and politicians have sketched out simple but flawed exit strategies. Staying the course in Iraq will not solve all of Iraq's problems, and it will, sadly, mean more casualties in the short term. But withdrawal will not end the violence, ensure that Iraqis live happily ever after in their enclaves or end anti-American terrorism. We will still be targets, as will pro-American friends and U.S. interests in the region.

JUDITH S. YAPHE is Distinguished Research Fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University. For more than 20 years, she was a political analyst on the Middle East at CIA.

July 30, 2006 Los Angeles Times :Click here to view article in full.


McNair Paper 69
"Reassessing the Implications of a Nuclear-Armed Iran"

by Judith S. Yaphe and Charles D. Lutes, October 2005

What is motivating Tehran to seek a nuclear weapons capability, and what impact might such a capability have upon the greater Middle East region and beyond?. In this new study, authors Judith S. Yaphe and Charles D. Lutes show that Iran’s nuclear intentions are clearer now, while U.S. policy options to forestall such intentions may be more limited .


EAST ASIA-PACIFIC Back to top
Taipei PLA Navy Conference

The Institute of National Strategic Studies recently joined with the Council for Advanced Policy Studies (CAPS), the China Program of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP), and the RAND Corporation to co-sponsor the International Conference on PLA Affairs, held in Taipei, Taiwan from November 29 to December 1 2007.  This year marked the nineteenth annual meeting of the conference and the first year INSS was driectly involved as a co-sponsor. INSS Senior Fellow Dr. Phillip Saunders worked with his counterparts at CAPS, CEIP and RAND to organize and conduct the conference. Paper presenters, discussants, moderators and organizers included many of the top specialists on PLA affairs in the U.S. and Taiwan.



This year’s conference focused on “The Chinese Navy: Expanding Capabilities, Evolving Roles?” A range of papers analyzing developments in the Chinese navy covered: the historical and regional context of China’s growing capabilities and expanding roles, the role of the navy in China’s greater statecraft and decision making, developments in the areas of personnel, strategy and doctrine, force structure, shipbuilding, “informationization” and discussion of the PLANs role in anti-access/area denial missions. Work on an edited volume featuring the papers is well underway.

3rd INSS-NIDS-KIDA Trilateral Workshop

On 19-20 September 2006, the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses hosted delegations from the National Institute for Defense Studies (Japan) and INSS for the third annual INSS-NIDS-KIDA Trilateral Workshop. Workshop participants discussed the implications of the restructuring of the U.S. military footprint in Japan and Korea for Northeast Asian security, as well as trilateral cooperation on regional contingencies and in promoting peace in the region. Japan’s Ambassador to the ROK, H.E. Shotaro Oshima, also addressed the workshop. The workshop concluded with a political-military crisis exercise dealing with the North Korean nuclear issue. The INSS delegation included Elaine Bunn, Stephen Flanagan, Renata Louie, James Przystup, and Philip Saunders. The delegation also had separate bilateral exchanges in Tokyo and Seoul with NIDS and KIDA analysts, other think tanks, and U.S. Embassy officials.

INSS-NIDS-KIDA Trilateral Workshop




Occasional Paper #4

Phillip C. Saunders
October, 2006

- Chinese leaders are pursuing a long-term strategy based on maintaining a peaceful international environment that allows China to build the economic and technological foundations necessary to become a rich and powerful country. China's increased global activism in different regions has evolved along largely independent strategic and economic tracks.

INSS's Center for the Study of Chinese Military Affairs website can be viewed at http://www.ndu.edu/inss/China_Center/INSS_About_CSCMA.htm.
WESTERN HEMISPHERE Back to top

SC Logo

FIU


2007 Western Hemisphere Security Colloquium

WHEM

“CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT FOR TRANS-AMERICAN COOPERATION”
Thursday & Friday, May 3-4, 2007 at 6:30 p.m.

Please join U.S. Army War College, National Defense University, U.S. Southern Command and Florida International University at:

Hotel Intercontinental
2505 Northwest 87th Avenue
Doral, Florida, 33172

The Conference registration website will be live March 15, 2007. For more information contact Brian Fonseca at:
brian.fonseca@arc.fiu.edu
or 305-348-2330

INSS has since 1994 sought to further research on hemispheric security and defense issues and to contribute to the professional education of United States and foreign practitioners.

Click here to visit the INSS Research Directorate page for "Colleagues for the Americas" reports, and for more information on related topics.


CONGRESSIONAL SUPPORT
STRATEGIC POLICY FORUM
Strategic Policy Forum


CRISIS-SIMULATION EXERCISES

The Strategic Policy Forum, an initiative of the Office of the Secretary of Defense, brings Members of Congress, senior executive branch officials, and military leaders together for crisis simulation exercises that give insight into the complexity of policymaking in the current global security environment. Exercises are designed to stimulate discussion of emerging national security issues, explore the capabilities and limitations of the main instruments of national power, and examine the international implications and other consequences of U.S. actions.

SPF’s State Exercise Program

The Strategic Policy Forum (SPF) conducted its second state exercise in Anchorage, AK on August 7, 2007. Senior Federal executive branch and military officials, such as Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense, Ryan Henry, joined senior state level representatives, including the Governor, and Lieutenant Governor for an exercise in a new SPF program that aims to bring the benefits of Congressional gaming outside Washington to the states. Senator Stevens and Governor Palin opened the exercise, speaking of the importance of pandemic preparedness and planning to Alaska and the federal-state partnership.

SPF’s state exercise program can, at the request of a state’s leadership, execute our Congressional exercises for a state audience, in an effort to promote federal-state dialogue on issues of current national and, especially, homeland security importance. Our next state exercise, an updated Global Tempest, assessing changes and lessons learned in pandemic preparedness is already scheduled to return to Hawaii in January 2008

For more information about the iteration of Global Tempest conducted in Alaska, see the exercise report in the menu below. Additional information about the state exercise program can be found on the SPF website here.

SPF’s Congressional Exercise Program

On July 17, 2007 SPF conducted exercise Persian Gold at National Defense University. Ten Members of Congress participated along with subject matter experts from the Departments of Defense, State, and the National Intelligence Council. The exercise examined Iranian activities in the broader Middle East and their impact on regional security and U.S. national security interests. (More information about Exercise Persian Gold can be found in the exercise report in the menu below.)

SPF’s 2008 exercise schedule will be posted soon. For more information or for an invitation for any interested Member of Congress, please contact Col Chris Goggins, Director, Strategic Policy Forum at: gogginsc@ndu.edu or (202) 685-4827.

Click on one of the titles below to view past exercise reports:

Click here to visit the Strategic Policy Forum home page.
INTERAGENCY SUPPORT
INTERAGENCY TRANSFORMATION, EDUCATION and AFTER ACTION REVIEW
ITEA


Interagency Coordination Symposium

December 12 - December 14, 2006

The ITEA Interagency Coordination Symposium seeks to promote better interagency communication, coordination, and cooperation within the executive branch of government, including the growing network of agencies responsible for national and international security; and enhance the Government’s understanding of the different cultures, mandates, and capabilities that are found within each department and agency as well as within non-
governmental and international organizations by providing a networking opportunity to collaborate in a non-threatening environment.

Click here to visit the ITEA website for more information.

 


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                  In the Media

Sarko’s Window of Opportunity


by Leo Michel
European Voice.com

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