McNair Paper Number 52, Preface, October 1996

PREFACE

The original version of this paper, completed in December 1995, was condensed by Williamson Murray, editor of Brassey's Mershon American Defense Annual, for the 1996-1997 edition. This condensation did not include three entire sections that are part of this present study (chapter 3 on Scharnhorst's influence, chapter 6 on strategic surprise, and chapter 9, which contained air combat data bearing on friction's role in future war). Dr. Murray also cut significant parts of other sections, especially in chapter 10, and precipitated a fair amount of rewriting as he and I worked toward a version that met his length constraint but still reflected the essence of the original essay. While this process led to many textual improvements, it did not generate any substantive changes.

The impetus for substantive changes came from Alan Beyerchen, of the Ohio State University, in May 1996. Dr. Beyerchen, a formidable student of both Clausewitz and nonlinear dynamics, raised an important issue concerning possible measures of general friction that harked back to Andy Marshall's query, in late 1995, as to whether the "magnitude" of general friction has been declining in recent decades. After much discussion back and forth, I added several pages of new material in chapters 5 and 9 that introduced decision-cycle times and viable option sets in "possibility space" as candidate measures.

These additions prompted others, primarily in chapter 10. Besides expanding and improving the treatment of nonlinearity, the discussion of chance was thoroughly revised in light of Poincar('s 1903 essay on the same subject, again after much discussion with Beyerchen.

By the time these changes had been completed, the condensation of the original essay for Brassey's Mershon American Defense Annual was far enough along that the best I could do was to make its text consistent with the post-Beyerchen version. There was no room to incorporate substantive changes. Thus, the present text restores most of the original and goes a step beyond it conceptually; this is one reason why the Director of the NDU Press, Dr. Frederick Kiley, elected to go ahead with separate publication of the complete essay. Dr. Kiley and I then decided to modify the title of this longer version, to make it distinguishable from a reference standpoint.

Lastly, a special word of thanks is due Andrew Marshall, the Director of Net Assessment since 1973. He encouraged this project from the outset and, as always, provided probing questions at every step of the way.

Bethesda, Maryland

September 1996