The United States faces four threats according to a recent conference sponsored by INSS. Among these threats, the one the Department of Defense has the fewest tools to deter or deal with is international terrorism. The reason is that terrorists must be linked to other nations before military forces can be used as a deterrent, but how far actions against states will deter terrorism is untested.

Other threats peer states, regional bullies, and failed states are more straight-forwardly handled by the instruments of the U.S. armed forces and therefore garner less concern. Most conference participants saw challenges in countering major regional contingencies by rogue states but none that the United States could not cope with. And most viewed U.S. intervention in the chaos of failed states as a discretionary policy choice.

A more serious threat would be a sophisticated regional bully that tries to coerce its neighbors: one that could tap into the global market for sophisticated commercial and military technologies; may be helped by a great power friend; and could thwart a U.S. attempt to replay Desert Storm. How to deter such a nation is a question that needs further work.