BACKGROUND

The United States is preparing to make a decision on the deployment of a National Missile Defense. It is to be complemented by advanced Theater Missile Defense. The START II and III process could result in a substantial restructuring of US offensive forces. Promising advanced conventional capabilities may soon become available that have strategic applicability. The collection and analysis capabilities of the Intelligence Community have been under severe strain and numerous reports indicate that they need to be updated and improved. Congress has shown an interest in providing new funding for the Intelligence Community.

At the same time, the nature of the strategic environment is changing. New, emergent ballistic missile/WMD powers threaten US interests and allies and may soon threaten the US directly. Russian and Chinese reliance on nuclear offensive forces may be changing, and both are suppliers to the nuclear programs of the emergent powers. There are strong indications that the possibility that international norms against nuclear proliferation are weakening and small and medium powers have easy access to advanced technology.

These developments suggest that the need of the US for strategic capability could very well increase in the coming decades. As the first paragraph indicates, the US is at the point of making critical decisions about its offensive, defensive and intelligence capabilities. This symposium seeks to inform decision-makers and the broader strategic affairs community by identifying the issues and reviewing the consequences of different choices with respect to national strategic capability.

This symposium will serve as the first installment in a series of meetings and studies to be sponsored by INSS in FY 2000 examining the issues related to deterrence, dissuasion and defense in the 21st century.  Report on the proceedings of the National Defense University Joint Operations Symposium

Executive Summary

AGENDA

0730-0825 Registration - Eisenhower Hall (Building 59)

0825-0835 OPENING AND ANNOUNCEMENTS - Baruch Auditorium, Eisenhower Hall

0835-0845 WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION OF KEYNOTE

0845-0930 PURPOSE AND EXPECTATIONS: Admiral Richard W. Mies, U.S. Navy; Commander in Chief, United States Strategic Command

Chaired by: General Larry D. Welch, U.S. Air Force (Retired); President, Institute for Defense Analyses

• "Nuclear Forces Policy in the Clinton Administration" - Dr. John Harvey; Deputy Assistant Secretary (Nuclear Forces and Missile Defense Policy), Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense (Strategy and Threat Reduction)

• "Regional Strategy and the Role for Strategic Capabilities" - Rear Admiral James D. McArthur, Jr., U.S. Navy; Deputy Director for Strategy and Policy (J-5), The Joint Staff

• "How Does One Size the Deterrent?" - Ambassador C. Paul Robinson; President and Laboratories Director, Sandia National Laboratories

• "Strategic Capability for the 21^st Century: More than the TRIAD?" - Major General Charles R. Henderson, U.S. Air Force; Director for Plans & Policy (J-5), United States Strategic Command

1215-1345 LUNCH SPEAKER: INTELLIGENCE PANEL KEYNOTE "Strategic Intelligence Capabilities and Needs into the 21^st Century" - Mr. John C. Gannon; Assistant Director of Central Intelligence for Analysis & Production

1400-1600 PANEL TWO: The Contributions of the Intelligence Community To D⁴

Chaired by: Dr. Robert L. Butterworth; President, Aries Analytics, Inc.

• Strategic Warning and Deterrence - Mr. Richard L. Haver; Vice President & Director For Intelligence Programs, TRW Systems and Information Technology Group

• Foreign Missile Development & Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States Through 2015 - Mr. Robert D Walpole; National Intelligence Officer for Strategic and Nuclear Programs, National Intelligence Council

• Intelligence Capabilities in  Support of Strategy - Dr. Robert A. McDonald; Chief, The Center for the Study of National Reconnaissance, Office of Policy, National Reconnaissance Office

• Intelligence:  A View from the Hill - Mr. John I. Millis; Staff Director, House Select Committee on Intelligence

1615-1700 PANEL THREE: KEYNOTE PRESENTATION: "U.S. Defense Policy and Missile Defense" - Mr. Franklin C. Miller; Principal Deputy to the Assistant Secretary (Strategy and Threat Reduction), Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Policy)

• "National Missile Defense and Theater Missile Defense as Components of a New Strategic Deterrent" - Dr. Steve Cambone; Director, Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University

• "The Limits of Defense" - Dr. Michael O. Wheeler; Senior Defense Analyst, Strategic Applications International Corporation
  
• "Regional Operations, Defenses, and Deterrence" - Ambassador Robert Joseph, Director, Center for Counterproliferation, National Defense University

• "Allies and Defense" - Dr. Dov S. Zakheim; CEO, Systems Planning Corporation International

2000-2045 DINNER KEYNOTE - "Congressional Perspectives on Strategic Capabilities" - Honorable Kent Conrad (D-ND), United States Senate

Chaired by: Dr. Ronald F. Lehman II, Director, Center for Global Security Research, University of California

• "New Diplomacy for a New Age? America's Power, Its Allies and Other Powers, Great and Small" (Two Speakers)

- Dr. Barry M. Blechman; President, DFI International

- Mr. Steve Biegun; Staff Director, Senate Foreign Relations Committee

- Ambassador David J. Smith; President of Global Horizons, Inc.

- Mr. Will Marshall, President, Progressive Policy Institute

- Ambassador Thomas W. Graham, Jr., President, Lawyers Alliance for World Security

1345-1400   Symposium Wrap-Up - Dr. Steve Cambone; Director, Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University

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Updated:  January 13, 2005