Fundamental to the development and implementation of a successful future defense posture is a foundation comprised of a well-reasoned assessment of the future security environment, a clear understanding of the “realm of the possible” for and limitations of military forces, and an understanding of the nation’s security objectives. Developing an appropriate assessment of the future security environment is not something done in a vacuum as it is impossible to fully separate purely military or national security issues from other elements of the national and global environment. This is particularly true for the United States. Technical innovation and adaptation, the rise and decline of other actors on the international stage, domestic politics, globalization and its effects on trade, migration, communications, and the power of nonstate actors all, bear heavily on any security assessment.

There is no shortage of assessments of the future security environment. In the last decade, National Defense University itself has produced several, most recently, Strategic Challenges – America’s Global Security Agenda. The objectives of this symposium are to examine some of these strategic assessments, to review our success at incorporating their key elements into strategic and operational plans, and to propose ways to institutionalize best practices into the process for future force development and joint force planning. We will explore these issues through a series of panel discussions and keynote addresses. Featured speakers will include military officers, government officials, and experts from research institutes. The symposium will be held at the National Defense University, Fort Lesley J. McNair in Washington on 4-5 June 2008.

The program is open to the public. Participants are expected from government, business, universities, and research institutes from the United States and abroad. Registration will take place in Room 107 of Eisenhower Hall. All panels will be conducted in Baruch Auditorium. Lunches will be held in Room 155 of Marshall Hall.

Day 1: The Art of the Long View

0800-0815 Welcoming Remarks
Dr. James Schear, Director of Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University

0815 – 0900 Opening Keynote Address: The Commander's Strategic Assessment
Admiral James G. Stavridis, USN, Commander, U.S. Southern Command

0915 – 1045 First Panel: Testing Past Long-Range Strategic Predictions

• What lessons can current defense planners draw from the past?
• How would you measure success in developing a forecast of the future security environment? How can one attribute or assign avoidance/deterrence/defense against a threat to predictions, adequate plans, or successful implementation?
• Is the past prologue when it comes to forecasting the future security environment in light of the empowering aspects of modern technology, knowledge sharing, and communication?
• What lessons can we draw from the many efforts across the federal government during the last decade to develop independent assessments of the future security environment?

Moderator: Dr. Hans Binnendijk, Director Center for Technology and National Security Policy
Panelists:
CAPT Sam Tangredi, USN (Ret) Author, All Possible Wars? Toward a Consensus View of the Future Security Environment 2001-2025

Dr. Richard K. Betts, Arnold Saltzman Professor of War and Peace Studies, Director of the Institute of War and Peace Studies, and the Director of the International Security Policy Program in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University
Dr. Williamson “Wick” Murray, Professor Emeritus of European Military History, Ohio State University and Senior Fellow, Institute of Defense Analysis - Paper

1100 – 1230 Second Panel: Best Practices from Long-Range Strategy and Forecasting

• What are the prospects for using commercial or business-based long-range forecasting products and methodologies to support or augment government efforts?
• What discontinuities in objectives/output need to be bridged for that to occur? How could that be done?
  
• What is the gold standard for long range strategic forecasting right now?
• How do we ensure that we institutionalize the historical lessons of developing and understanding assessments of the future security environment and embedding the critical judgments into our strategic plans?

1245 – 1415 Keynote Lunch Address: National Defense Strategy
Introduction: Ambassador Richard Roth, Senior Vice President, National Defense University
Mr. Ryan Henry, Principal Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

1430 – 1615 Third Panel: Military Long-Range Strategy and Scenario Planning

• Is the current process of integrating futures assessment, security policies, military strategy, and military plans capable of meeting the current and futures security challenges faced by the U.S. and allies?
• How can we better synchronize U.S. strategic assessments and defense strategies with those of our allies and partners?
• Do we have the right tools, methodology, and the right people? What shortcomings exist and what should be done to fix?

Moderator: Lieutenant General David W. Barno, USA (Ret), Director, Near East South Asia Center for Strategic Studies
Panelists:
Dr. Thomas G. Mahnken, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy Planning, Office of the Secretary of Defense
Colonel John A. Warden, III, USAF (Ret), President, Venturist, Inc., former Commandant, Air Command and Staff College - Paper, PPT
Dr. Evelyn Farkas, Executive Director, Commission on the Prevention of Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation and Terrorism
Mr. Frank Hoffman, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy Research Institute - Paper

Day 2: From Strategy to Plans and Forces

0800 – 0930 Fourth Panel: Projecting Future Battlespaces and Scenarios

• The Army & USMC have collaborated on and practice improved counterinsurgency doctrine, the Navy has unveiled a new strategy that emphasizes soft power, and the USAF lays claim to the "final frontiers" of space and cyber space. Where are the strategic gaps in Service focus and resource priorities?
• What are the distinguishing characteristics of the future battlespace and how are they different from those of “20th Century” warfare”?
• Non-state actors have, with innovation, mastered technology and tactics on the battlefield, in the traditional media, and across the web and other electronic channels to challenge the U.S. in an expansive battlespace. Can potential nation-state adversaries effectively harness both their traditional combat forces and these new capabilities to counter U.S. forces?
• What future battlespaces and conflict scenarios are missing from current assessments of the future security environment?

Moderator: Col. TX Hammes, USMC (Ret), former CBIRF Commander
Panelists:
Lieutenant General Paul K. Van Riper, USMC (Ret), former Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command - Paper
Ms. Michele A. Flournoy, President and co-founder, Center for a New Amercian Security (CNAS) and former Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Strategy and Threat Reduction
Dr. James S. Corum, Professor of Military History, Department of Joint and Multinational Operations, U.S. Army Command and General Staff College - Paper

0945 – 1115 Fifth Panel: Determining Future Forces—Tradeoffs and Priorities with Respect to the Joint Warfighting Capabilities Needed to Operate in Tomorrow’s Conflicts

• How do we “right-size” the force while retaining an appropriate mix of capabilities (sustainment, lift, communications, medical support, etc.) to cover the wide range (geographic, missions, and level of threat) of expected conflict environments?
• How can we move from asking, “How much is enough?” to identifying critical building blocks for future joint operations?
• How can we better globally manage the force?
• What changes are necessary in DoD organization, authorities, and business practices?
• How can or should we synchronize with and factor in (projected) civil agency and Allied capabilities when making trade-offs in our joint warfighting capabilities?

1130 – 1300 Keynote Lunch Address: Creating Tomorrow’s Joint Forces
Introduction: Colonel Bern Altman, USMC, National Defense University
General James Mattis, USMC, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Transformation and Commander, U.S. Joint Forces Command

1315 – 1500 Sixth Panel: Institutionalizing Best Practices for Joint Force Planning

• How do we ensure that we institutionalize the historical lessons of developing and understanding assessments of the future security environment and embedding the critical judgments into our strategic plans?
• Do we have the right tools, methodology, and the right people in place? What changes are necessary?
• How do we ensure that best practices institutionalized today are responsive to changes in the environment, technology, threats, or other factors that affect their effectiveness?

• How do we ensure that we institutionalize the historical lessons of developing and understanding assessments of the future security environment and embedding the critical judgments into our strategic plans?
• What does the next 10 years of security environment look like?
• What roles are we planning for/should we be planning for? How much of our future security is our responsiblity, how much is the responsiblity of allies/partners?
• How can we best develop competitive strategies to deal with long-term security threats?