1998 Joint Operations Symposium
"21st Century Warfighting"
Co-Sponsored by
National Defense University and the Joint Staff
September 9-10, 1998, Fort McNair, Washington, DC
The annual National Defense University Joint Operations Symposium was held at Fort McNair on September 9 and 10, 1998. This year's symposium, titled "21st Century Warfighting," explored complementary ways of thinking about warfare in the 21st Century. Our objectives were (1) to define and assess the capabilities and implications of a variety of future warfighting capabilities, (2) to analyze operational concepts related to these selected capabilities and predict the impact on rationalizing actual forces and capabilities, (3) to determine where and how these concepts and the broader strategic objectives might be expanded or reshaped beyond the 2010 timeframe and (4) to develop a matrix that assesses six selected warfighting scenarios verses a number of concepts and capabilities that might be used in warfighting in the future. Summary
Opinions, Conclusions, and Recommendations expressed or implied by the Authors' Papers are solely those of the Author and do not represent the views of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense, or any other government agency or nongovernment organization. |
AGENDA
Wednesday, September 9, 1998
0700-0800 REGISTRATION: Marshall Hall - Atrium
0800-0815 WELCOME AND ANNOUNCEMENTS: Marshall Hall, Room 155
0815-0915 KEYNOTE ADDRESS: Vice Admiral Dennis C. Blair, U.S. Navy; Director, Joint Staff - "JV2010 From a Military Perspective" and Dr Edwad L. Warner, III; Assistant Secretary of Defense (Strategy and Requirements), Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy - "JV2010 Implementation From a Strategy and Resources Perspective"
0945-1145 PANEL ONE: "The Environment Beyond 2010"
- The Geo-political Scene: Dr. Paul Wolfowitz; Dean, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University
- Energy and Power: Mr. Anthony H. Cordesman; Senior Fellow and Co-Director, Middle East Studies, The Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Other Challenges: Peacekeeping, NGOs, and Non-traditional Actors: Ambassador Robert B. Oakley; Visiting Fellow, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
- The Impact of Globalism and Borderless Economics: Mr. Bruce E. Stokes; Senior Fellow and Director of Trade Programs, Council on Foreign Relations
- The Changing Nature of Warfare: Dr. Richard L. Kugler; Distinguished Research Professor, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
Moderator: Dr. Hans Binnendijk; Director, Institute for National Strategic Studies, National Defense University
1200-1400 LUNCH SPEAKER: Dr. Hans Mark; Director, Defense Research and Engineering, Office of the Secretary of Defense
Overview: Dr. Harlan K. Ullman; Chairman of the Killowen Group and Affilated with CNA and CSIS
- Controlling the Environment? Dr James P. Wade, Jr.; Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer, Defense Group Incorporated
- Brilliance in Execution: General Gary Luck; U.S. Army (Retired)
- Total Knowledge: Admiral Jonathan Howe, U.S. Navy (Retired); Executive Director, Arthur Vining Davis Foundations
- Rapidity and What We Don't Know: Technology and Potential Adversaries: Dr. John Foster; Former Director, Defense Research and Engineering, Office of the Secretary of Defense
Moderator: Dr. Harlan K. Ullman; Chairman of the Killowen Group and Affilated with CNA and CSIS
1630-1830 PANEL THREE: "Alternative Concepts of Future Warfighting"
- Warfighting Beyond 2010: Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich; Executive Director, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments
- Netcentric Warfare: Vice Admiral Arthur K. Cebrowski, U.S. Navy; President, Naval War College
- A Contrarian View: Dr. Michael E. O'Hanlon; Fellow, Foreign Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution
- Threats and Use of Force in the Post-Cold War Era: Implications for Forces; Dr. Barry M. Blechman; President, DFI International
- An Allied Perspective: Major General Charles Vyvyan; Defense Attache, The British Embassy
Moderator: General Thomas Morgan, U.S. Marine Corps (Retired); Senior Fellow, CAPSTONE, National Defense University
1830-1930 RECEPTION (MARSHALL HALL - ATRIUM)
1930-2130 DINNER SPEAKER: Mr. David R. Gergen; Editor at Large, U.S. News & World Report
Thursday, September 10, 1998
0830-0930 KEYNOTE: Mr. Paul G. Kaminski; President, Technovation - "The Impact of Technology on Future Warfighting"
0930-1130 ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE WARFIGHTING CONCEPTS AND PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS (Working Group Breakout Sessions)
Conference participants will be divided into scenario working groups based on individual preferences of scenarios that follow. Each working group will be chaired by a serving (or retired) senior flag officer or an equivalent civilian.
Scenarios
- Two MRCs (with and without WMD)
- Peer Competitor
- Asymmetric Threats
- Difficult Terrain
- Complex Contingencies
- Coercion and Deterrence
The seminar time will be devoted to assessing the working group's assigned scenario in a matrix format reflecting a graded assessment of the following categories of information:
Assessment Considerations
- Current Force and QDR Strategy
- Projected Capabilities
- Rapid Dominance
- Accelerated RMA
- Sub-Categories (assess each individually)
- Information Operations
- Coalitions
- Non-Lethal Forces
- Non-Military (Sanctions, etc)
- Nuclear Deterrence
- Citizens' Army
1145-1345 LUNCH SPEAKER: Honorable Paul McHale (D-PA)- "A View from the Hill"
1400-1630 PANEL FOUR: Working Group Feedback Session
OPENING REMARKS: Admiral Harold W. Gehman Jr., US Navy; Supreme Allied Commander, Atlantic - "A View From a Warfighting CINC"
One Representative from each of the topics will give a 5-minute summary of what was discussed during the working group session on the previous day. These presentations will be followed by an open Q&A/Discussion Period.
MODERATOR: Admiral Leighton W. Smith, U.S. Navy (Retired); Leighton Smith Associates and Senior Fellow, Center for Naval Analyses