Draft Not For Quoting

 

The Challenges of Sino-US Relations:

Issues and Problems

 

Jiemian Yang

Shanghai Institute for International Studies

 

 

(Draft)

 

When the world is transiting into the new century and the new millenium, so is the configuration of the world powers. The multi-polarization of the world and the globalization of economy have added new international factors. The post-Cold War era has witnessed a realignment of co-relation of powers in the world. Major powers today are readjusting their relationships. The developed countries, especially the United States, are enjoying a relatively stable growth in economy and striding in science and technology. The information revolution has made the world a more integrated one. Along with these developments, are the changes of people’s mindsets, mentalities as well as ideas. Another prominent development is the increase of the numbers of the non-state players, such as super-state ones, regional organizations, NGOs and multinationals. The disintegration of the former Soviet Union and the emergence are the two major considerations for the United States to redefine its China policy.

 

However, states are still the most important actors in today’s international affairs. In terms of state-to-state relations in the world, the Sino-US relationship is one of the most important bilateral relationships. Last year the Sino-US relations experienced dramatic and drastic events ranging from the bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade to the conclusion of the WTO package. This year is US presidential election year. Many have predicted that the Sino-US relationship will be complicated and difficult.

 

The Sino-US relationship has a strong international context. It interacts with other factors both regionally and globally. The direction of the Sino-US relationship will directly affect the peace and development in the world in general and the Asia-Pacific Region in particular. Since both China and the United States are two major powers, they hold special responsibility as well. Given the commonality of and difference between the two nations, there exist both positive and negative possibilities in the years ahead.

 

I. The World, Asia-Pacific Region and China

 

1. The World Environments. Since the end of the Cold War era, the world has witnessed some fundamental changes. The world is undergoing a transitional period. The bipolar system has disappeared. But people still do not know clearly what kind of system it is going to be. Some suggest a Pan Americana. Some talk about a multi-polar system. Still some others advocate something in between. The question of how to define the new world system has caused some uncertainties and anxieties.

 

The transition from the Cold War international order to the post-Cold War does not like the previous times. It did not go through a major war and new treaties but is experiencing a long process of evolution. The United Nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank continue to be important parts of the current international order. But the World Trade Organization (WTO) is definitely something new. All countries, especially some big and middle powers, want to obtain an advantageous position at a time when the new International Political and Economic Order (NIPEO).

 

Both the contents and extensions of today’s international affairs have greatly expanded. State-to-state relations have far exceeded the traditional spheres and extended into economy, education, culture, environment protection, and others. Many non-state actors are coming to play more important and active roles than ever before. International and regional inter-governmental organizations has resumed part of a super-national government. Some multinationals and transnationals has not only much more economic power but also political power than some medium and small countries. State’s physical boundaries have become less important for the inter-flow of people, capital and technology.

 

A dichotomy of trends appears to gather momentum. On the one hand, nations and peoples are inclined to determine their priorities by practical interests. Economic growth and the elevation of life qualities are more important than abstract concepts. On the other hand, the United States and some other Western powers have increasingly stressing such notions as “democracy”, “freedom” and “human rights”. They emphasize the limitation of sovereignty, advocate for humanitarian intervention and call for preventive diplomacy.

 

Information revolution has rapidly and profoundly changed the world. Information revolution has not only changed the ways of communication, but also those of living, working and thinking. The easiness and swiftness of communication have enabled nations and people to think in a much broader sense. This is especially true in international affairs. The developed countries are attempting to take this advantage to expand their political and economic interests in the world. The developing countries are obviously in a disadvantageous position.

 

The United States continues to gain advantages. It is enjoying the longest period of economic growth and rapid development of science and technology. The United States, through the NATO expansion and US-Japan security guideline, has succeeded in readjusting its relations with its major allies. With a boosted comprehensive national strength and self-confidence, the United States is anxious to translate its wills into actions in dealing with certain international affairs. At the same time, the US has to readjust its relations with other major powers. It confronts difficulties with Russia, China, India and, to a less extent, France. The United States also has troubles to deal with developing countries.

 

2. Regional Environments. The concepts and realities of the Asia-Pacific Region have greatly changed in the past decade. Ten years ago, people were greatly optimistic about Asia-Pacific Region’s politics, economy and security. The Asia-Pacific Region did not suffer political and economic turmoil of the European kind at the end of the Cold War. People were thus encouraged to talk about the possibility of a peaceful and prosperous transition. The previous two decades of economic growth have made people entertain such ideas of Asia-Pacific Century. Some people even doubt if there would ever be a business cycle in the region.

 

However, the late course of developments has proved these predictions wrong. First, the major power relationships in the region have seen frequent ups and downs. The triangular relationships of the United States, Japan and China have become difficult. Sino-US and Sino-Japan relationships have soured. In addition, the strengthened military alliance of the United States and Japan has been watched carefully by China. The closer military-to-military ties between China and Russia have also caused grave concerns in the United States and Japan. Second, the Asian Financial Crisis ended the long and high economic growth in the region. Many economies have actually retrogressed for many years. The Asian countries have begun to realize a simple truth: their economy is also vulnerable to outside impacts. As a result, the process of regional economic cooperation and integration has noticeably been affected. Third, in some countries political turbulence went hand in hand with economic difficulties. Indonesia has finally discarded the Suharto regime. The tensions in the Korean Peninsular have caused concerns time and  again. The US-Japan security guideline and the proposed Theater Missile Defense (TMD) have become highly controversial. The nuclear arms race between India and Pakistan has been a severe setback to non-proliferation efforts.

 

Despite of these adverse developments, the Asia-Pacific Region is still moving ahead. On the whole, the Asian Financial Crisis is over. South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia and others have regained their momentum of economic growth. Moreover, the Asia-Pacific countries have learnt a good lesson, which will benefit their future development. Indonesia has displayed its great capabilities to avert political disaster and adapt to the new situation. The ASEAN countries are closing their ranks and preparing for a new role in the regional affairs.

 

3. Implications to China. After twenty years of reforming and opening-up, China has substantially enhanced its comprehensive national strength. It is aiming at transforming backward China into a medium developed country in the middle of the 21st century. In order to achieve these great goals, China needs a peaceful environment externally and stability internally. Thus, China has all along pursued an independent and peaceful foreign policy.

 

China has set out a very clear global and regional strategy. At global level, it is to ensure a more just and reasonable international order. China is an emerging power but does not demand for an overhaul of the existing international order. Actually, China is already part of the existing one. For political and security matters, China is one of the Five Permanent Members of the UN Security Council. For economic matters, it is a member of both IMF and World Bank. China spares no efforts to join the WTO. As a matter of fact, China’s policy of reform and open-up itself is a manifestation of how painstakingly China is working at integrating itself with the international community. In the meantime, China also works hard at improving the existing order. China does not endorse a mono-polar word, nor satisfy with the Western dominance of the world affairs. China calls for an increased role of the developing nations. China hopes that, through negotiations and dialogues, the world community will finally be able to establish a more just and fairer NIPEO.

 

At regional level, China’s first priority is to improve its relations with the neighbors. Thanks to years’ efforts, China enjoys good and stable relations with most of its neighbors. China has settled almost all of its border issues with Russia, the former Soviet republics, Vietnam and some others. China’s proposal for common development while shelving disputes in the South China Sea has been widely appreciated by the parties concerned. During the Asian Financial Crisis, China kept its promise not to devalue its currency, thus halting the Domino effect of a new round of Asian devaluation. China’s high sense of responsibility has won great admiration from its Asian neighbors. Many Asian countries have come to realize that China is not a threat, but a helper. China also plays an important role in maintaining peace and stability in the Korean Peninsular and works hard on the issue of non-proliferation. China is a positive and active member of major regional organizations and mechanisms, such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), 10+3 (10 ASEAN nations plus China, South Korea and Japan), 10+1 (10 ASEAN nations plus China), and Asia-Europe Dialogue.

 

II. New Trends in the Sino-US Relationship

 

1. New Challenges in the Sino-US Relationship. First, Mutual frustration has reached a dangerous point. In China’s view, the United States has created one trouble after another. These include the so-called political contribution, the TMD, the Cox Report, the last-minute rejection of the package deal with the visiting Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji on China’s accession to the WTO, the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade and the proposed Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (TSEA). For the United States, it was criticizing China for its human rights record, its ties with such “rogue” nations as Iraq and Iran, its rejection of renouncing use of force to solve the Taiwan issue and its vehement reaction after the bombing incident. The US side also complained that, among other things, China did not return American well-intentioned gestures.

 

Second, strong mutual frustration has turned into deep mutual suspicion. The worst scenario has prevailed in some cases. Foreign policy very much depends on perceptions. If people just think the worst of each other, sensible and reasonable policies will not be made and implemented. Some of the US media has often depicted China in a very negative way. Some Americans both inside and outside the government have suspected that China will become an adversary. A coming conflict between the two some time in the next century is inevitable.

 

Third, domestic factors play an increasingly bigger role. Many complicated and difficult factors are affecting the US China policy. The political and partisan fights often derail the executive’s agenda. The US preference for unilateralism and the strange alliance of the left and right exert great pressure on its any attempt to improve the Sino-US relations. The single-issue pressure groups, such as the human rights, environment protection, trade union and religious organizations, all challenge the Clinton Administration’s China policy. The ongoing presidential campaign has made the situation even more difficult to handle. In China, its increasing integration with the world and the US has blurred the distinction between foreign and domestic factors. The Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status and the WTO accession issues are two cases in point.  The Chinese people’s resentment and dissatisfaction against the US pressure have been on the quick rise. The patriotism and enhanced self-confidence have become an important factor to be reckoned with in China’s foreign policy decision-making process. Of course, not all the domestic factors are negative. Years of interchanges in politics, economics, cultures, professions, and academics have brought up a large group of people for normal and healthy relationship. The two business communities both play an active and effective role in this bilateral relationship.

 

Fourth, the Sino-US relationship closely interacts with the cross-Strait relations. Since the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1995–1996 and the summit visits in 1997 and 1998, the US has exercised some restraint and caution on the Taiwan issue. The executive and legislative branches and others in the mainstream have reached a sort of consensus, namely, that Taiwan should not take provocative moves. However, two opposing forces are pulling the United States. One is to improve the Sino-US relationship, and the other is to strengthen its ties with Taiwan. The United States has increased arms sales to Taiwan, the US-Japan defense guideline has virtually included Taiwan, and the proposed TMD will give a military, political and psychological support to Taiwan’s separationist tendency.

 

2. Some Positive Trends. As the Sino-US relationship is so important that neither side can afford a total confrontation. Even in the eventful year of 1999, the two governments were able to control the damage and continue the relationship. There is some encouraging news.

 

Both governments are working at putting their relationship back on the normal track. The Sino-US relationship is too important to become out of control. The two countries are doing repair work. They have reached agreement on compensation on the Bombing Incident. It is encouraging to see that the two presidents used hotlines after both the bombing and Mr. Lee Teng-hui’s two-state remarks. The Jiang-Clinton summit at the APEC last September greatly facilitated the final wrapping of the WTO deal. China and the United States have already resumed political and military consultations that were suspended after the Bombing Incident.

 

WTO package will exert an positive impact on the Sino-US relationship. Although President Clinton turned down the best possible offer from the Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji during his April trip to the United States, the US side, the executive and legislature alike, has finally realized its importance. Only four months after the tragic bombing incident, the two presidents met at APEC meeting in Auckland, the New Zealand and agreed to reopen the WTO negotiation. Again only another two months later, the two governments concluded the package agreement. As an important step to fulfill its obligations, the US congress will go to vote on whether offering PNTR to China some time in the middle of this year. In essence, this is a vote on whether the US would like to continue its normal relation with China and realize its hard-won benefits through the negotiation with China. The conclusion of WTO deal will help narrow Sino-US differences and expand their commonality. The closer economic and trade relations will also have positive ripple effects in other fields.

 

China and the United States have reached certain degree of understanding to stabilize the situation in the Taiwan Strait area. The two sides have realized that healthy and normal Sino-US relations facilitate stable cross-Strait relations. Stable cross-Strait relations are in the interests of all the parties concerned. Shortly after Mr. Lee Teng-hui put forward his “Two-State” Theory last July, the US executive branch clarified its position on adhering to its “One China” policy and criticized Mr. Lee for his intention to “rock the boat” and “change the status quo”. Even some pro-Taiwan elements at the US Congress showed their dissatisfaction. Some credits should be given to the Clinton administration.

 

The two sides have resumed their political and security dialogues. While the proposed constructive strategic partnership is controversial, both governments continue its consultations on strategic and security matters. Starting from December last year, China and the United States resumed their political and military dialogues. It has been reported that more high-level visits will take place. The Chinese side has again agreed to allow US ship calls at Hong Kong ports. The two sides will also hold joint maritime humanitarian exercises. Such mutual visits and military-to-military exchanges are obviously beneficial for increasing mutual understandings.

 

Realistic expectation will reduce the chance of disillusion. The two sides have become pragmatic and realistic in setting their goals in the election year of the United States. On the American side, the Clinton Administration understands that the best thing is to avoid controversy during the presidential campaign. It therefore focuses on winning supports for offering PNTR to China. On the Chinese side, it also realizes that under the current circumstances it is not likely to reach any significant breakthroughs in the Sino-US relations. Therefore, to promote trade and economic relationship has become the major theme, and perhaps the only feasible target. Perhaps this is what both sides have learnt in the past few years. It is better to resist tempting catchwords and adopt realistic attitudes.

 

III. Sino-US Relations and Their Impacts

 

China and the United States are two important members of the world and Asia-Pacific region. Their bilateral relationship is of great significance on the Asian Pacific countries’ foreign and domestic policies. In the past three decades, though without ups and downs, the general trend of the Sino-US relationship is positive and forward-looking. An improved Sino-US relationship has greatly contributed to the peace and development in the region.

 

In order to maintain this trend, we must understand some of their conceptual and actual differences. As how to evaluate the global and regional situation, China does not see eye to eye with the United States. China believes that the world is heading for a multi-polar one. Since the end of the Cold War, the configuration of world powers is changing. The original bipolar confrontation is being replaced by the coexistence of one superpower and several major powers. Although this pattern has basically remained stable, US superiority is on the rise. Moreover, the United States is trying hard to translate its superiority into the advancement of its own interests in politics, diplomacy, security and economy. China calls for the establishment of a more just and fairer NIPEO, appeals for respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of all countries, opposes interference in others’ internal affairs, and rejects the use or threat of use of force.

 

The United States holds that it should continue its leadership in the world affairs well into the 21st century. On the basis of its enhanced international standing and increased national strength, the United States tries hard to project its powers, promote its value, expand its economic interests and spread its culture. The US superiority has been further strengthened vis-à-vis a weakened Russia, an economically injured Japan and a not-yet-a-peer Europe. In handling with world affairs, the United States is often hegemonic, hotheaded, inclined to interfere with others’ internal affairs and solve some regional conflicts by force. The United States has even gone so far as to bypass the UN and use military force. Just since August 1998 the United States has used force, either individually or multilaterally, against Afghanistan, Sudan, Iraq, and Yugoslavia.

 

The United States has not moved beyond the Cold War thinking in security matters. At the end of the Cold War, some Americans seriously thought of restricting NATO’s role, withdrawing some overseas troops and calling for peace dividends. In the Asia-Pacific Region, the Clinton Administration once put forward the concept of a “New Pacific Community.” American academic circles explored possible collective models ranging from the Northeast Asian Security Cooperation Conference to the ARF. However, in recent years, Cold War thinking is picking up in the United States. According to the US’s new strategy put forward in 1997, the United States takes as guiding principles molding a conducive international environment, maintaining the capacity to win two theater wars at the same time, and preparing for unforeseeable crises. It is stepping up a security system in the Asia-Pacific Region by strengthening bilateral military alliances under its leadership.

 

The United States has clear-cut targets in these two strategic regions. First and foremost, the United States tries to maintain its global and regional leadership. It wants to continue to weaken Russia so that there will be no way for the Russians to challenge the Americans once again in the future. In the Asia-Pacific region, the United States has a hedging policy to prevent China from becoming its peer sometime in the next century.

 

In order to realize its security strategy, the United States needs to cooperate and coordinate with its allies. In Europe, the United States has worked out a security network by strengthening and enlarging NATO. In the Asia-Pacific Region, the United States has made the US-Japan alliance a cornerstone with a system of bilateral alliances with Japan, South Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, and Australia.

 

China has always advocated the casting away of Cold War thinking, called for common and cooperative security, and opposed obtaining one’s “security” at the expenses of the others. China opposes the so-called NATO expansion, the US-led NATO action in Kosovo and the US military actions against some countries. Besides, China firmly opposes US arms sales to Taiwan, the inclusion of Taiwan under the US-Japan Security Guideline and the TMD covers Taiwan, and the proposed TSEA. All these do not only seriously violate the three Sino-US joint communiqués, but also gravely encroaches upon China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

 

Small wonder that China and the United States differ on a number of international issues such as the relationship with Iran and Iraq, post­-nuclear tests Indian-Pakistani relations, the international trial of the former Khmer Rouge leaders, and particularly the Kosovo crisis. Therefore, some Americans even claim that there is no cooperation basis for the proposed strategic partnership between the two countries.

 

IV. For a Better Future

 

1. Working Towards a Better Sino-US Relationship. As a ranking American Pentagon official said, among the Sino-US problems, the most important and imminent danger is not human rights, trade deficit or Falun Gong, but the Taiwan issue. Indeed, the Taiwan issue has always been the most important and sensitive issue at the core of the Sino-US relationship. Therefore, the United States should play a positive role in its handling with the Taiwan issue. Fundamentally speaking, the Taiwan issue is an internal affair between the Chinese across the Taiwan Strait, and the United States should not interfere with China’s internal affairs. However, the Chinese side can discuss the Taiwan issue with the Americans, because the United States created the Taiwan issue half a century ago and still possesses great influence over Taiwan. The Taiwan issue has always been the most important and sensitive issue at the core of the Sino-US relations. The US executive branch and Congress should not play a negative role in the process of China’s reunification. The United States should abide by the three joint communiqués and keep to its commitment of “One China;” the US Congress should encourage cross-Strait dialogue instead of Taiwanese independence.

 

In near term, both countries should strive to stabilize their bilateral relationship. Whether like it or not, the US election culture has created a four-year cycle of first attacking and then dealing with China. Campaign rhetoric fills fuel to the fiery debates in both countries. The political and opinion leaders have the great responsibility to stabilize their bilateral relationship. The gradual resumption of political, strategic and military exchanges are important for mutual communication. The so-called second tracks are indispensable in promoting mutual understanding. The economic interaction is a stabilizer in the relationship. Speaking something one has to and refraining from overreaction to words benefits maintaining stable relationship. Doing something of common interest and deferring something controversial facilitate a constructive relationship. The reversed will result in not only competitive but also confrontational relationship.

 

In medium term, both countries should improve their mechanisms and work towards more confidence Building Measures (CBMs). They should also create a favorable regional environment. Given the importance of the two countries, their bilateral relationship has far exceeded their physical boundary. It is in their common interest to create a politically friendly, strategically cooperated environment in the region.  China and the United States should adopt a down-to-the-earth attitude to discuss important regional issues, such as the China-US-Russia relationship, China-US-Japan relationship, the Korean Peninsula issue, economic and financial cooperation, etc.

 

In long term, both countries should take a strategic and long-term view when they deal with each other. The two countries should take concrete steps to enhance understanding, dispel misunderstanding, remove suspicions, reduce troubles, and increase cooperation. First and foremost, the two countries should work out a strategy of making friendly relationships and not making enemies each other. They have to have more official and unofficial contacts, greater economic and trade interactions, better coordination on global and regional issues, closer consultation at international organizations, and joint efforts in building up a NIPEO.

 

2. Working Towards a Better Asia-Pacific Region. As the Sino-US relationship will directly affect the regional stability and prosperity, the two countries hold special responsibilities and the keys to building up a regional security and economic framework. The two countries should display more sincerity and trust in conducting dialogue on regional security matters. Together with other countries in the region, they should work out a formula to enhance mutual trust, reduce mutual suspicions, alleviate the danger of arms race, and avoid unintentional accidents. Through these CBMs, they could contribute to a stable and secure regional mechanism.

 

On some existing and potential hot spots in the region, both China and the United States should expand their cooperation where such cooperation does exist such as in the Korean Peninsula, Cambodia and on the matter of non-proliferation in the South Asia Sub-Continent. They should work hard at facilitating cooperation where such possibilities can be sought such as in Southeast Asia. They should also make efforts to do a good job on damage controls where they have fundamental differences. Neither side should take unilateral actions to aggravate the situation.

 

Nowadays security has far exceeded the traditional boundary. Economic security has become an important component of nations’ security considerations. China and the United States have worked together at the APEC and cooperated to certain extent on financial and monetary matters during the Asian Financial Crisis. However, further cooperation needs more mutual communication, understanding and trust. China, the US and other countries concerned should work together to this end. Here the region-wide cooperation is a precondition for building up regional mechanism to promote trade liberalization, cooperation in science and technology, and stability in finance and monetary matters.

 

3.Working Towards a Better World. China and the United States are major powers in the world. They are both permanent members of the UN Security Council and posses nuclear weapons. China is the largest developing country whereas the United States is the strongest developed one. Moreover, China is emerging and the United States is not declining. To a large extent the two countries will be critical to the establishment of the NIPEO on a more just and fairer basis.

 

Both countries should work together with the major countries and /or country groups to reach consensus on the principles to establish the new international order. They should determine the codes of conducts as well. While it is useful to explore such concepts as human rights and humanitarian concerns, no country has the right to monopolize their interpretation, let alone to enforce their views onto the other nations. In the meantime, they should fully implement the Five Principles of Peaceful Co-Existence as a prerequisite to establish the NIPEO. Of course, they should also take into consideration other proper principles.

 

To realize these goals, China and the United States should work with other countries to reach agreements. China does call for an immediate realization of the NIPEO but through negotiation and in a gradual way. It advocates strengthening rather than weakening the role of the UN. It firmly opposes to unilateral alteration of existing arrangements such as Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM). It positively participates new negotiations such as the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). China makes relentless efforts to join in new organizations such as WTO..

 

Both countries should work hard with a view to the era of the earth village. Both China and the United Sates are major nations with vast territories, big populations and considerable powers. Therefore, it is relatively easier for them to admit the earth village concept but still difficult to translate it into policies. They should stress the welfare of the entire human race rather than their own. They have the responsibilities and obligations to eliminate poverty both at home and abroad. Broad-mindedness is the basis for a harmony instead of conflict of nations.

 

Both countries should think far in advance to promote the peace and prosperity of the world. At the times of invention, creation and advancement, new progresses in science and technology take place every day. China, the United States and other countries confront with the issue how to make them for world peace and prosperity. All countries should concentrate their wisdom and resources on lifting up people’s living standard. All countries should use these new achievements to promote healthy state-to-state relations instead of interfering with other countries internal affairs. No country is allowed to start a new round of arms race by taking the advantage of their strength.

 

Maybe the above-mentioned seem to be too idealistic and moral-driven. However, for a better and securer world in the new century and millenium, we need inspiration, principle, value and truth. China is one of the birthplaces of great thoughts. The United States is typical in generating new thinking. Asia is proud of its unique value. The Asia-Pacific Region has immensely contributed to development strategy and philosophy. There is no reason why we should hesitate to talk about ideas and ideals.

 

In the United States, especially in the military circle, it is generally believed that strong and sufficient military preparation can stop the war. In Chinese character, two parts make up the word “military”: meaning say NO to weapons. We have something in common despite of all our differences. Therefore, let us make joint efforts at the two ends of the world to say NO to wars and YES to peace and prosperity.

(February 27, 2000)

 

 

 

Jiemian Yang

Senior Fellow and Director

Department of American Studies

The Shanghai Institute for International Studies

Tel: (86)(21) 5403-2537 (o)

Fax:(86)(21) 5403-0272 (o)

Email: jiemyang@public4.sta.net.cn

 

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