CHALLENGES FOR THE YEARS AHEAD

CHALLENGES FOR THE YEARS AHEAD: REPUBLIC OF KOREA

Kongdan Oh[i]
Institute for Defense Analyses,
Alexandria, Virginia

Principal Security Issue

Successful as it has been in economic, political and social development over the past fifty years, the Republic of Korea (ROK or South Korea) remains half of a divided country. Military, economic and political threats from the northern half of the country (the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea or DPRK) are the ROK’s greatest concern. It is also true that two halves of the same nation which are so different inevitably generate tension that threatens the peace and stability of the entire region.

The ROK cannot by itself successful cope with the DPRK. Whatever the future brings, foreign cooperation and assistance will be needed. The three most likely future scenarios for the DPRK are Reform, Decline, or Collapse. They are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

DPRK Reform

Conditions

Kim Jong Il regime remains in power and in control of the population
Regime gradually adopts modest Chinese-style reforms
Nuclear and missile agreements with the US provide continuing aid
Other aid forthcoming from international donors
Token conventional arms reduction and troop pullback

Security Issues

Strengthening the DPRK economy (so it doesn’t have to rely on blackmail or weapons sales)
Role of DPRK military in domestic politics
DPRK reduction of conventional arms and elimination of WMD
Adjustment of post-cold war ROK military role and strategy
Adjustment of post-cold war US military role and strategy in the ROK

Multilateral Security Roles

Support ROK’s engagement efforts with aid and technical assistance from multiple programs involving neighboring and other donor countries and IFIs
Reassure DPRK military with US-ROK-DPRK joint training exercises; base renovation
Reassure ROK military with continued but reduced US-ROK military programs, US-ROK-Japan consultation, and ROK-China and ROK-Russia military contacts
Transform USFK presence on peninsula to neutral UN Peacekeeping Force

DPRK Decline

Conditions

Restrained relations with ROK
Strained relations with US and Japan
International donor fatigue
Stalemate on KEDO implementation and missile talks
DPRK belligerent rhetoric and “military first” politics

Security Issues

Prevent Korean People’s Army (KPA) frustration
Address security concerns of ROK and Japan (and also China and Russia)
Alleviate suffering of DPRK people
Prepare for refugee flows
Keep options open for adoption of reform policy

Multilateral Security Roles

Contain DPRK military without provoking it by opening ROK-DPRK hotline and establishing permanent ROK-US-Japan, ROK-China, and ROK-Russia security committees
Prepare rapid deployment units for quick, decisive multilateral responses to DPRK provocations
Provide 360 degree conflict deterrence with frequent multilateral and unilateral high-level cautionary statements from DPRK’s neighbors, who also convene periodic bilateral military meetings with the DPRK military
Maintain US security role in East Asia and explore OSCE options for the region
Provide aid to DPRK people through carefully-monitored WFP and other program assistance
Keep communication channels open to DPRK military and government with contacts by individual states and multilateral organizations such as EU and ARF

DPRK Collapse

Conditions

Widespread domestic disturbances
Abdication of Kim regime
Refugee flows within North Korea and to China, ROK and Japan
Rogue DPRK military units operate for their own benefit
Chinese military reinforces its border
ROK panic and debate

Security Issues

Limit impact of disturbance on DPRK’s neighbors
Support ROK crisis management and stabilize DPRK society
Prepare foundation for DPRK restructuring and Korean reunification
Determine which foreign aid workers will be acceptable to DPRK people

Multilateral Security Roles

Organize UN-sponsored refugee camps in China, Russia and ROK
Organize UN-sponsored sea patrols with ships from neighboring countries
Co-opt DPRK police and military contingents by providing them aid and initiating reconstruction programs in which they can participate
Send in UN monitors to oversee safeguarding of missile and WMD installations
Send in ROK/UN supervisors to monitor DPRK civil order activities and provide training
Send in UN-sponsored medical teams and other crisis response teams, initially with US military components conducting practiced Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW)*
Arrange for fast-track IFI reconstruction loans

*MOOTW Responses (according to US Joint Military Doctrine)[ii]

Combating terrorism
Support for counterdrug operations
Enforcement of sanctions/maritime intercept operations
Enforcing exclusions zones
Ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight
Humanitarian relief
Military support to civilian authorities
Nation assistance/support to counterinsurgency
Noncombatant evacuation operations
Peace operations
Protection of shipping
Recovery operations
Show of force operations
Strikes and raids
Support to Insurgency
Special missions and other activities

[i] The opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect those of the Institute for Defense Analyses or its clients. The assistance of Dr. Ralph C. Hassig is acknowledged.

[ii] Source: Dan Henk, Uncharted Paths, Uncertain Vision: U.S. Military Involvements in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Wake of the Cold War, INSS Occasional Paper 18, Regional Series, USAF Institute for National Security Studies, U.S. Air Force Academy, Colorado, March 1998).

Other background sources include:

William O. Odom, The U.S. Military in Unified Korea (Paper written at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, November 1, 1999).

Barry R. Posen, “Military Responses to Refugee Disasters,” International Security, Vol. 21, No. 1 (Summer 1996), pp. 72-111.

A. Martin Lidy, “U.S. Role in Complex Contingencies, Potential Global Partners, and Challenges to Achieving Unity of Effort,” OSD Task Report, Institute for Defense Analyses, April 2000.

Kongdan Oh and Ralph Hassig, “North Korea between Collapse and Reform,” Asian Survey, Vol. XXXIX, No. 2 (March/April 1999), pp. 287-309.