Dealing with North Korean Futures
The National War College published the results of a Study
Group as a white paper on North Korea regime futures with the Korea Economic
Institute (KEI) on April 12, 2011.
The study, whose primary author was NWC Professor and Dean for Research
Mike Mazarr, was aimed primarily at U.S. and South Korean government officials,
and has been briefed to various offices and commands here and in Seoul.
It argues that North Korean society has evolved dramatically over the
last decade, under the influence of a collapsing state sector and rising
markets and market mentalities, and that U.S. and allied policy must respond
to the change.
The study recommends a three-part strategy to prepare for possible future
contingencies: (1) Address hard questions through U.S. interagency and
multilateral policy processes designed to think through difficult issues
before crises arrive; (2) Develop mutual understandings through multilateral
dialogue to such problematic issues as humanitarian response and WMD control
in crises; and (3) Pursue an active posture to invest in trends in North
Korea by taking a number of steps, from enhancing contacts with DPRK officials
to encouraging private-sector investment, to gain additional information,
build relationships, create human and physical capital, and in other ways
generate insurance against various regime futures scenarios.
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