The National War College published the results of a Study Group as a white paper on North Korea regime futures with the Korea Economic Institute (KEI) on April 12, 2011.

The study, whose primary author was NWC Professor and Dean for Research Mike Mazarr, was aimed primarily at U.S. and South Korean government officials, and has been briefed to various offices and commands here and in Seoul. It argues that North Korean society has evolved dramatically over the last decade, under the influence of a collapsing state sector and rising markets and market mentalities, and that U.S. and allied policy must respond to the change.

The study recommends a three-part strategy to prepare for possible future contingencies: (1) Address hard questions through U.S. interagency and multilateral policy processes designed to think through difficult issues before crises arrive; (2) Develop mutual understandings through multilateral dialogue to such problematic issues as humanitarian response and WMD control in crises; and (3) Pursue an active posture to invest in trends in North Korea by taking a number of steps, from enhancing contacts with DPRK officials to encouraging private-sector investment, to gain additional information, build relationships, create human and physical capital, and in other ways generate insurance against various regime futures scenarios.

Access the report

Roger George — “Reflections on CIA Analysis: Is It Finished?”